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Vietnam Power Report Q1 2013

Vietnam Power Report Q1 2013

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Additional Information

Price	$1,175.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Jan 16, 2013

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Quick Overview

BMI View: Acceleration in real GDP growth in the second half of 2012 reinforces our belief that
electricity consumption is poised for a stronger performance as we head into 2013. Similarly, we hold a
relatively constructive view for the expansion of the country's power infrastructure on the back of the
official launch of Vietnam's competitive generation market. Nonetheless, we reiterate that low tariffs,
rising dependence on imported fuel (namely coal) and lack of regulatory clarity remain key downside
risks
In previous quarter, we had highlighted that adverse domestic and global macroeconomic trends would
have likely resulted in weaker growth in electricity consumption over 2012 (especially as businesses and
households cut back on spending and investment). Yet, we had maintained a more positive stance with
regard to the longer term outlook; a position validated and strengthened by recent developments, which
saw Vietnam's real GDP growth accelerating from 4.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q212 to 5.4% in Q312
and expectations for a decline in lending rates over the coming months creating scope for a robust
rebound in private sector investment.
Our relatively bullish long-term outlook for Vietnam's power sector, predicated on our view that the
country will see strong and prolonged economic growth, thus remains fully in place, and substantial
revisions in our historical data series and the availability of new information have actually prompted a
further upwards revision of our short and long term forecasts across the power sector. Hikes in power
generating capacity and significant improvements in the transmission and distribution (T&D) segment are
a recognised necessity, with Vietnam's Master Plan VII predicting that the country will need 75,000MW
of installed capacity by 2020. In addition, the launch of Vietnam's new competitive generation market
(CGM) on July 1 2012 is certainly a step in the right direction, with an increasing number of international
actors having showed interests in the market recently (as illustrated by the projects in the pipeline for
development after 2015).
That said, a number of pertinent risks remain prominent, leading us to believe that a discrepancy will
certainly emerge between planned and realised capacity. Most notably:
o Regulatory uncertainty remains high. For instance, the cancellations of nine small- to mediumcapacity
hydropower plants in October 2012 highlighted an increasing lack of opportunities for
small-scale hydropower generation, due to growing environmental concerns. However, we
believe that the cancellations also displayed a disparity between provincial and federal level
planning.
o Low tariffs and dependence on imported fuel (namely coal) as a key impediment to the power
sector's growth potential, and news that theft of electricity is on the rise are certainly worrying.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View ........................................................................................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Vietnam Power SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Regional Industry Overview ............................................................................................................................ 8
Table: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap ................................................................................................................................................ 11
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 12
Vietnam Snapshot (Macro) ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data ............................................................................................................................. 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector ............................................................................................................................................................. 12
Vietnam Forecast Scenario ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity..................................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Vietnam Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 ................................................................................................. 13
Table: Vietnam Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 ............................................................................................... 15
Table: Vietnam Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 ........................................................................................... 17
Table: Vietnam Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 ......................................................................................... 18
Table: Vietnam - Planned and Proposed Nuclear Power Reactors to 2030 ......................................................................................................... 22
Electricity Consumption...................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Vietnam Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts ................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Vietnam Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts ................................................................................................................... 25
Transmission & Distribution .............................................................................................................................................................................. 26
Table: Vietnam Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts .............................................................................. 26
Table: Vietnam Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts .............................................................................. 26
Table: Vietnam Trade Data And Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Vietnam Trade Data And Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 27
Key Policies/Market Structure ...................................................................................................................... 28
Regulation and Competition ............................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Sustainable Energy Policies................................................................................................................................................................................ 30
Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 31
Key Projects Database ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 32
Table: Vietnam Major Projects - Power ............................................................................................................................................................. 32
Power Risk/Reward Ratings .......................................................................................................................... 41
Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................. 41
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................ 45
Vietnam's Power Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 46
Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor ................................................................................................. 47
Electricity Of Vietnam (EVN) ............................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Glossary of Terms ......................................................................................................................................... 50
Table: Glossary of Terms .................................................................................................................................................................................... 50
Methodology And Sources ............................................................................................................................ 51
Industry Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Power Industry - Data Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Generation and Consumption Data .................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Electricity Generation Capacity Data ................................................................................................................................................................. 53
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................... 53
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators ................................................................................................................................................................ 55
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 57