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Vietnam Power Report Q1 2011


Vietnam Power Report Q1 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Aug 1, 2011
Quick Overview
The new Vietnam Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.60% of AsiaPacific regional power generation by 2015, with the risk of power shortages if generation expansion fallsbelow the required level, thanks partly to system inefficiencies. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generationassumption for 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.6% over the previousyear. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,786TWh by 2015, representing growth of26.7% in 2010-2015.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.Vietnam’s thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 53.5TWh, or 0.87% of the regional total. By 2015,the country is expected to account for 1.15% of regional thermal generation.
For Vietnam, oil will have accounted for an estimated 20.4% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED),followed by gas at 8.5%, coal at 18.6% and hydro-power with 4.3%. Direct burning of wood and wastematerials contributes a further 48.5% to overall energy consumption. Regional energy demand is forecastto reach 5,496mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated2010 level. Vietnam’s estimated 2010 energy market share of 1.84% is set to rise to 2.19% by 2015. Anestimated 40TWh of hydro-electric demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 61TWh by 2015, with its share ofthe Asia Pacific hydro market rising from 4.06% to 4.73% over the period.
Vietnam shares fourth place with India in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thankslargely to the growth potential of power consumption and energy demand, plus healthy scores in severalother categories. It should be able to pull further away from Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Pakistanbelow, and has longer-term potential to challenge Japan above it.
BMI is now forecasting Vietnamese real GDP growth averaging 6.57% per annum (pa) between 2010and 2015, with a 2011 assumption of 5.60%. The population is expected to expand from 88.4mn to92.8mn by 2015, with per capita GDP and electricity consumption set to increase by 90% and 58%respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 90TWh in 2010 to 149TWh in2015. After power industry usage and transmission losses, there is scope for a supply shortfall of 6TWh by2015 if generation grows at no more than our assumed average annual rate of 10.6% (2010-2015). Thereis, however, a real risk of persistent electricity shortages if the power industry cannot deliver adequatenew capacity as demand soars.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Vietnam Power Business Environment SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................... 7
Vietnam Political SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Vietnam Economic SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Industry Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 10
Global ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015 ................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Asia Pacific Region ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................................. 12
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) ................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ............................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................. 17
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 18
Primary Energy Demand .................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Power Generation ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Power Consumption ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 21
Regulation And Competition ............................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 24
Power Transmission ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Business Environment ................................................................................................................................. 26
Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................................. 26
Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................... 26
Vietnam’s Power Rating ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 27
Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Legal Framework................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28
Infrastructure ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Labour Force ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Foreign Investment Policy .................................................................................................................................................................................. 32
Tax Regime ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Security Risk ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 37
Vietnam’s Power Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Generation .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Gas-Fired ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Oil-Fired ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Coal-Fired .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Nuclear Energy ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Hydro-Electric .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Renewable Energy .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
Power Costs ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 43
Transmission ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Table: Vietnam’s Power Sector, 2008-2015 ....................................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Vietnam’s Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 ......................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Vietnam’s Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 ................................................................................................................................. 47
Table: Vietnam’s Power Costs, 2008-2015 ......................................................................................................................................................... 47
Assumptions and Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario ................................................................................................................................................................ 48
Long-Term Power Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................. 48
Macroeconomic Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity; 2007-2015 ................................................................................................................................................ 51
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ......................................................................................................... 52
Global Snapshot.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 52
Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020 ................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Regional Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 52
Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................ 53
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 54
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 55
Table: Asia Pacific Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ..................................................................................................................... 56
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................... 57
Vietnam Country Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 59
Electricity Of Vietnam (EVN) ............................................................................................................................................................................. 60
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 63
Power Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 64
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 64




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