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United States Freight Transport Report Q2 2011


United States Freight Transport Report Q2 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Apr 15, 2011
Quick Overview
BMI's outlook for the US freight transport sector in 2011 is cautiously optimistic. We expect volumes at major ports, and on road, rail and air links to continue recovering from the downturn as the consumer outlook brightens slightly. We expect to see continued investment in expansion and development in the sector. This investment will be driven in some cases by rising Asian demand for US coal, which has highlighted the need for greater capacity at coal export facilities and on coal hauling railways on both the east and west coast. The impending completion of the expansion of the Panama Canal will also be a major driver of investment, as east coast ports rush to prepare for the arrival of post-Panamax vessels in 2014, and the current west coast hubs, LA and Long Beach, seek to minimise their losses.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 port of Los Angeles tonnage throughput forecast at +5.1% with annual average growth of 5.1% during our forecast period.
?? 2011 port of New York/New Jersey tonnage throughput forecast at +0.6% with annual average growth of 0.9% during our forecast period.
?? 2011 air freight tonnes/km forecast at +7% with annual average growth of 6% during our forecast period.
?? 2011 rail freight tonnes/km forecast at +4% with annual average growth of 3% during our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends End Of The Road In Sight For NAFTA Trucking Dispute
On March 4 2011, President Obama announced that the US and Mexico have reached a deal that would allow Mexican trucks to cross the US border, ending a long-standing and bitter dispute. 'After nearly 20 years, we finally have found a clear path to resolving the dispute over trucking between our two countries,' Obama said after his fifth meeting with Mexican President Felipe Calderon. Although BMI recognises that this is a positive step, we caution that the agreement is as yet preliminary. Negotiators must deal with 'remaining issues' and the Obama administration must consult with 'interested members of congress'. We believe the deal, while welcomed by shippers, will face vociferous objections from the US trucking lobby.
US Coal Exports Surge, Prompting Rail Investment Drive Two of the biggest US coal haulers, Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) and CSX Corp, have seen revenues rise on the back of recovering volumes in 2010. CSX has announced 2010 operating income of US$3.1bn, up 35% on 2009. Earnings hit US$1.56bn, up 37% as a result of strengthening volumes, revenue growth and productivity, according to a press release. BNSF has not yet reported its fourthquarter results, but for the third quarter of 2010 it has reported a 22% increase in revenue to US$4.3bn, and its profits rose 42% to US$774mn. For the first nine months of 2010, it generated revenues of US$12.2bn, a 17% increase, and profit rose 38% to nearly US$2.1bn. On the back of these positive results, both companies have announced considerable investments plans for 2011.
Risks To Outlook Downside risks to our outlook present themselves in the form of a slower than expected recovery in US consumer demand. Our lacklustre outlook for the US economy, and in particular, worries over sustained structural unemployment, could negatively affect consumer spending. In turn, this would have a negative effect on import levels and therefore the freight transport sector.
A further downside risk is the possibility of a slowdown in China. Overheating of the Chinese economy could lead to withdrawal in 2011, which would put downwards pressure on US growth, negatively affecting our outlook for the US freight transport sector.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
United States Freight Industry SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................... 7
United States Political SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................... 7
United States Economic SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................. 8
United States Business Environment SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................... 8
Market Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 9
Road ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Rail ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Air ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Maritime ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Industry Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................ 11
Road ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Rail ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Air ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Maritime ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ............................................................................................................... 14
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)........................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) ................................................................................................................. 17
Industry Forecast .......................................................................................................................................... 19
Road ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2015 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Rail ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2015 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Air Freight .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 20
Maritime And Inland Waterways ........................................................................................................................................................................ 20
Table: Maritime Freight – Throughput, 2008-2015 (‘000 tonnes) ....................................................................................................................... 20
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2008-2015 ...................................................................................................................................................... 21
Trade .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015 .................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) ............................................................................................................. 22
Table: US’ Main Import Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn) ..................................................................................................................................... 23
Table: US’ Main Export Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn) ..................................................................................................................................... 24
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 25
FedEx.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Union Pacific Railroad ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
UPS (United Parcel Service) .............................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Country Snapshot: US Demographic Data .................................................................................................. 31
Section 1: Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 32
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ................................................................................................................................................................. 32
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 32
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 33
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......................................................................................................................................................... 33
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 33
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 (US$) .............................................................................................................................................. 34
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 35
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 35
Transport Industry .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Sources .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36




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