Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
UK Agriculture SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
UK Political SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
UK Economic SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 10
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 11
United Kingdom Grains Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: UK Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 12
Table: UK Barley Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................ 12
Table: UK Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 14
Table: UK Barley Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................ 14
United Kingdom Dairy Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Table: UK Milk Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes).................................................................................................... 17
Table: UK Butter Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 17
Table: UK Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ............................................................................................... 17
Table: UK Milk Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes).................................................................................................... 22
Table: UK Butter Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 22
Table: UK Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ............................................................................................... 23
United Kingdom Livestock Outlook ......................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: UK Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ............................................................................................... 25
Table: UK Pork Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) .................................................................................................. 25
Table: UK Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ........................................................................................ 25
Table: UK Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ............................................................................................... 28
Table: UK Pork Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) .................................................................................................. 29
Table: UK Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ........................................................................................ 29
United Kingdom Rice Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................. 30
Table: UK Rice Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) .................................................................................................... 30
Table: UK Rice Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes ) ................................................................................................... 30
United Kingdom Sugar Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: UK Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 31
Table: UK Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 33
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 34
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders ....................................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers ............................................................................................................................................................................ 35
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers........................................................................................................................................................... 36
Commodity Price Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 37
Softs Update ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Cocoa.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Table: Cocoa ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Coffee.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Table: Coffee ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Milk ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Table: Milk ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Sugar .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Table: Sugar ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Grains Update ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Corn .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table: Corn ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 41
Rice ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Rice .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Soybean .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43
Table: Soybean ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Wheat .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
Table: Wheat....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis ............................................................................................................ 45
Food......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Industry Forecast Scenario ................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Food Consumption .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Table: UK Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts ........................................................................................................... 45
Canned Food/Prepared Food ............................................................................................................................................................................. 46
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts ........................................................................................................... 47
Confectionery...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts ......................................................................................................... 48
Organic ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Trade .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 49
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts .................................................................................................................. 50
Mass Grocery Retail ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 51
Table: UK Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts ................................................................................... 52
Macroeconomic Forecast ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 53
Table: United Kingdom - Economic Activity, 2007-2014 .................................................................................................................................... 55
Industry Trend Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 56
Table: United Kingdom – Milk Production, Consumption & Trade .................................................................................................................... 58
BMI Forecast Modelling ................................................................................................................................ 59
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 59
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
UK Agriculture SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
UK Political SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
UK Economic SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 10
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 11
United Kingdom Grains Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: UK Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 12
Table: UK Barley Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................ 12
Table: UK Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 14
Table: UK Barley Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................ 14
United Kingdom Dairy Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Table: UK Milk Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes).................................................................................................... 17
Table: UK Butter Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 17
Table: UK Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ............................................................................................... 17
Table: UK Milk Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes).................................................................................................... 22
Table: UK Butter Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 22
Table: UK Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ............................................................................................... 23
United Kingdom Livestock Outlook ......................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: UK Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ............................................................................................... 25
Table: UK Pork Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) .................................................................................................. 25
Table: UK Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ........................................................................................ 25
Table: UK Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ............................................................................................... 28
Table: UK Pork Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) .................................................................................................. 29
Table: UK Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ........................................................................................ 29
United Kingdom Rice Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................. 30
Table: UK Rice Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) .................................................................................................... 30
Table: UK Rice Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes ) ................................................................................................... 30
United Kingdom Sugar Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: UK Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade, 2009-2014 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 31
Table: UK Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade, 2005-2010 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................. 33
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 34
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders ....................................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers ............................................................................................................................................................................ 35
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers........................................................................................................................................................... 36
Commodity Price Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 37
Softs Update ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Cocoa.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Table: Cocoa ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Coffee.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Table: Coffee ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Milk ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Table: Milk ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Sugar .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Table: Sugar ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Grains Update ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Corn .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table: Corn ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 41
Rice ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Rice .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Soybean .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43
Table: Soybean ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Wheat .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
Table: Wheat....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis ............................................................................................................ 45
Food......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Industry Forecast Scenario ................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Food Consumption .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Table: UK Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts ........................................................................................................... 45
Canned Food/Prepared Food ............................................................................................................................................................................. 46
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts ........................................................................................................... 47
Confectionery...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts ......................................................................................................... 48
Organic ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Trade .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 49
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts .................................................................................................................. 50
Mass Grocery Retail ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 51
Table: UK Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts ................................................................................... 52
Macroeconomic Forecast ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 53
Table: United Kingdom - Economic Activity, 2007-2014 .................................................................................................................................... 55
Industry Trend Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 56
Table: United Kingdom – Milk Production, Consumption & Trade .................................................................................................................... 58
BMI Forecast Modelling ................................................................................................................................ 59
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 59
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