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Ukraine Tourism Report Q2 2011


Ukraine Tourism Report Q2 2011

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Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Apr 15, 2011
Quick Overview
While the medium-term macroeconomic outlook across emerging Europe has improved considerably since the beginning of H209, when Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) was facing the worst macroeconomic crisis since the post-Soviet transition, we nevertheless maintain our view that the prospects for a demand-led recovery in Ukraine in 2011 are bleak. This will adversely affect its tourism industry. The recession subdued arrival numbers in 2009, dropping by 12% year-on-year (y-o-y), and as the majority of arrivals come from CEE, 2010’s arrival numbers did not entirely rebound. For 2010, BMI estimates growth of 7% y-o-y in tourist arrival numbers, with a jump from 21.9mn in 2009 to 23.3mn.
From 2011 to the end of our forecast period in 2015, we forecast the industry to return to and maintain double-digit growth until 2015, when the industry is forecast to grow by 9% y-o-y to 38.5mn.
The majority of tourists arrive in Ukraine via road or rail. The country is well placed for land travel as it borders seven countries, including Russia. Transport via road is forecast to substantially outpace rail travel. This coincides with the visa liberalisation between the EU and Ukraine – so that EU citizens no longer require a visa to enter the country for stays under 180 days, and the fact that Ukraine’s rail connections with the rest of Europe and Asia are in need of development. Positively, in November 2009 a memorandum of intent was signed between then Slovakian transport minister Lubomir Vazny, Ukrainian Railways deputy director Micheal Kospjuk and Russian Railways president Vladimir Yakunin for the expansion and upgrades to the broad gauge line linking Ukraine and Slovakia. The line was originally built to transport Ukrainian iron ore to Slovakia’s steel works in Košice.
Ukraine is set to co-host the 2012 UEFA European football championship with Poland and the tournament is a key driver for the country’s tourism industry during our forecast period. Not only will it bring thousands of tourists to the country, but the requirements to be chosen as a host for the competition include an array of infrastructure investment that can only be regarded as positive for the industry.
European football’s governing body, UEFA, said in February 2011 that it was satisfied with the progress made by the four cities in the Ukraine selected to host matches for the 2012 football championship, after an internal dispute within the Ukraine Football Association and slow progress on infrastructure put Ukraine’s host position in jeopardy. The starting kick-off game will take place in Poland, while the final game will take place in Ukraine.
Hungarian budget airline Wizz Air started offering services in Ukraine in 2008 and BMI expects the trend of low-cost carriers in the country to increase in the coming years. As of March 2011 Wizz Air, Italy’s Wind Jet, and Turkey’s Pegasus Airlines all fly to Ukrainian cities. The authorities at Boryspil International Airport, which serves Kiev, are constructing another terminal which will serve international and budget flights. Terminal D has a scheduled completion time of winter 2011. This would be a positive development in our view, as it would drive down fare prices, making travel within, to and from Ukraine more affordable, increasing tourism numbers. Wizz Air’s entrance to the market has already caused the largest Ukrainian carrier, Aerosvit, to reduce fares.
The January 2010 presidential election, the country’s first since 2004’s Orange Revolution, had the potential to destabilise the country politically but turned out better than expected, with political risk continuing to subside. The new president, Viktor Yanukovych, successfully formed a coalition government in March 2010 and it obtained a new US$15.2bn Stand-By Arrangement from the IMF, after the original loan was suspended in November 2009 – all positive steps for stability.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Ukraine Tourism SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Ukraine Political SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Ukraine Economic SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Ukraine Business Environment SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Industry Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................................................. 9
Arrivals .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Table: Arrivals Data, 2008-2015 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Accommodation ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Table: Accommodation Data, 2008-2015 ........................................................................................................................................................... 11
Expenditure ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015 ........................................................................................................................... 12
Inbound Tourism .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 13
Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015 .......................................................................................................................................................... 13
Outbound Tourism ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015 ....................................................................................................................................................... 15
Market Overview – Travel .............................................................................................................................. 17
Road Transport ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17
Air Transport ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .......................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)........................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) ................................................................................................................. 22
Market Overview – Hospitality ...................................................................................................................... 24
Hotels ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Business Environment Outlook .................................................................................................................... 26
BMI’s Security Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................. 26
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ....................................................................................................................... 27
City Terrorism Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index ........................................................................................... 29
Central And Eastern Europe Security Overview ...................................................................................................................................................... 30
Currency Forecast ......................................................................................................................................... 32
Table: Ukraine Currency Forecasts, 2011-2012 ................................................................................................................................................ 32
Global Assumptions, Q211........................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 34
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ...................................................................................................................... 35
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ...................................................................................................................................... 35
Developed States .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ................................................................................................................ 36
Emerging Markets ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 37
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .............................................................................................................. 38
Consensus Forecasts ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 ..................................................................................................................................................... 39
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 40
Aerosvit ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Premier Hotels ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
Ukraine International Airlines ............................................................................................................................................................................ 41
Wizz Air ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 42
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 42
Tourism Industry ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Tourism Ratings – Methodology ......................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators .............................................................................................................................................. 44
Table: Weighting of Components ........................................................................................................................................................................ 45
City Terrorism Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology....................................................................................................................................................... 47
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 47




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