Home »
Ukraine Power Report Q4 2012

Ukraine Power Report Q4 2012

Double click on above image to view full picture

Email to a Colleague - Print - Fax Order

Additional Information

Price	$1,175.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Oct 24, 2012

Add to Wishlist | Add to Compare

Qty:

-OR-

Quick Overview

BMI View: BMI’s power service focuses chiefly on thermal sources, hydropower and nuclear electricity,
while developments pertinent to the green segment will be discussed in depth in our renewables service.
However, we continue to provide a detailed overview of the dynamics affecting the power sector.
Ukraine’s dependence on Russia for gas is a problem, as it exposes the country to import volatility and
ongoing price disputes, which have been exacerbated by the government’s power price subsidies.
Domestic sources cannot fuel all gas-fired generation, so Ukraine wishes to boost its nuclear and
renewables capacity. Investment is unlikely to reach the required level, while sales prices for power are
low, although the International Monetary Fund is forcing through tariff increases.
Key trends and developments in the Ukrainian electricity market:
§ Ukraine’s power generation in 2011 is estimated by BMI to have been 177.28 terawatt hours
(TWh). During the period 2012-2021, Ukraine’s overall power generation is expected to increase
by an annual average of 2.12%, reaching 218.64TWh. Driving this growth will be an annual
average gain of 2.57% in gas-fired generation. Non-hydro renewables will also play a bigger role
in the country’s energy mix, growing by an annual average of 15.34% between 2012 and 2021.
§ Ukraine has a much more aggressive view of power consumption trends than BMI. An increase
in electricity demand to 307TWh by 2020 and to 420TWh by 2030 is envisaged by the state, and
government policy is to continue supplying half of this from nuclear power. This will require
29.5 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity in 2030, up from the current rate of 13.85GW. The
scale of the increase is at odds with likely economic growth and population needs, and the cost
of the capacity expansion programme is likely to be beyond Ukraine’s capabilities.
§ The Ukrainian government has announced that it will privatise four of the country's power
plants, reports Ria Novosti. The privatisation programme is intended to reduce Ukraine's
dependence upon costly Russian natural gas imports, as well as forcing the plants to adopt new
environmentally friendly technology. The facilities to be privatised are the Dneprodzerzhinsk,
Kharkov No. 5, Kherson and Odessa power plants. The Ukrainian government lifted a ban on the
privatisation of the country's 13 largest power plants in April 2012.

Table of Contents

CONTENTS...................................................................................................................................................... 3
BMI Industry View........................................................................................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 6
Ukraine Power SWOT........................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Regional Industry Overview ........................................................................................................................... 7
CEE Power: Macroeconomic Woes Still In Play ....................................................................................................................................................... 7
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................................................................................................... 10
Ukraine Snapshot (Macro)....................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data ............................................................................................................................. 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector............................................................................................................................................................. 10
Ukraine Forecast Scenario ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity..................................................................................................................................... 11
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016.................................................................................................... 11
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 ................................................................................................. 13
Table: Ukraine Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016.............................................................................................. 15
Table: Ukraine Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 ........................................................................................... 16
Electricity Consumption...................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016................................................................................................. 20
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 .............................................................................................. 20
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports ............................................................................................................................................... 21
Table: Ukraine Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016............................................................ 21
Table: Ukraine Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 ......................................................... 22
Table: Ukraine Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016...................................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Ukraine Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 ................................................................................................................................... 22
Key Policies/Market Structure...................................................................................................................... 24
Regulation And Competition............................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Power Risk/Reward Ratings ......................................................................................................................... 26
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings: Views In Play .................................................................................................................................................... 26
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) ............................................................................................................................ 29
Ukraine’s Power Risk/Reward Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................... 29
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Risks.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Competitive Landscape ............................................................................................................................... 31
Ukrenergo........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
AES..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Glossary of Terms ........................................................................................................................................ 34
Table: Glossary of Terms.................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Methodology And Sources ........................................................................................................................... 35
Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Ukraine Power Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Power Industry – Data Methodology ....................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Generation and Consumption Data .................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Electricity Generation Capacity Data................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology.......................................................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators ................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40