Home »
Ukraine Autos Report Q2 2011

Ukraine Autos Report Q2 2011

Double click on above image to view full picture

Email to a Colleague - Print - Fax Order

Additional Information

Price	$530.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Apr 8, 2011

Add to Wishlist | Add to Compare

Qty:

-OR-

Quick Overview

BMI expects the market to return to strong growth in 2011, but we doubt it will be able to reach pre-crisis levels in our forecast period up to 2015. However, we see a major structural shift in the nature of production as we expect locally based carmakers will look to increase their exposure to export markets – compared with the domestic demand-led production strategies adopted prior to the crisis. We expect Ukrainian carmakers to seek growth within the CIS region, its biggest export market, particularly in Russia. In 2010, the Russian market reported 30% y-o-y growth in new light vehicle sales – comprising passenger cars and light commercial vehicles – indicating a strong return of consumer confidence in the country. Moreover, with BMI forecasting that total new vehicle sales will increase almost 14% y-o-y in 2011 and average 11% y-o-y thereafter, it makes Russia an obvious choice for Ukrainian carmakers' export growth. The market accounted for nearly 95% of Ukraine's total car exports in 2009.
On the back of this view, BMI expects Ukrainian carmakers to increase production by around 37% y-o-y, to close to 113,175 units, in 2011 and nearly 33% in 2012. Production growth should hover in excess of 22% between 2013 and 2015 as carmakers will also be encouraged by the returning consumer confidence and hence spending domestically. The commercial vehicle segment outperformed the passenger car segment in 2010, having more than doubled to 7,822 units. Production growth in the commercial vehicle segment after the min-boom caused by the hosting of the UEFA Euro 2010 football tournament will be encouraged by the government's 2020 transport strategy. This is aimed at improving the efficiency of the transport system in the country as well as developing an integrated transport infrastructure of the Pan- European transport networks. Unsurprisingly, this will support domestic demand and hence production of commercial vehicles in the country.
The Ukrainian government is pushing for cars to be excluded from the trade liberalisation deal. The success or failure of this attempt by the Ukrainian government to exclude the auto market from a free trade deal will have significant effect on the nation's auto market. Should the auto trade be liberalised, the Ukrainian market will become a major target for European automotive firms seeking to boost sales in Ukraine as well as aiming to use Ukraine as a base for production. It is highly likely however that any major involvement of European carmakers would have a highly disruptive effect on local firms, which often rely on state support to expand and invest. Business plans geared towards domestic Ukrainian production would have to be placed under close scrutiny if firms are to avoid fruitless future investment.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Ukraine Auto Industry SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Political SWOT Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Economic SWOT Analysis ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Business Environment SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Regional Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 10
Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Western Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings ...................................................................................................... 17
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 18
Production And Sales .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Ukraine Vehicle Production – Historical Data & Forecasts .................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Ukraine Vehicle Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts .............................................................................................................................. 19
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .............................................................................................................. 24
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 26
Market Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 26
WTO Accession And The Car Market ................................................................................................................................................................. 29
‘Grey’ Market ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Manufacturing .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Commercial Vehicles .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................................... 36
PSA Peugeot Citroën Regional Profile .................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Financial Woes ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Focus On Faurecia ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Merger Opportunity ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 38
Eye On Eastern Europe ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 40
AvtoKrAZ ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
AvtoZAZ .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Eurocar ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Luckiy Avtomobilniy Zavod (LuAZ) .................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data .......................................................................................... 45
Section 1: Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 46
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ................................................................................................................................................................. 46
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 46
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 47
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......................................................................................................................................................... 47
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 47
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 ......................................................................................................................................................... 48
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 49
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model ......................................................................................................................................................... 49
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 50