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Ukraine Autos Report Q1 2011


Ukraine Autos Report Q1 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Aug 1, 2011
Quick Overview
Recovery is continuing in Ukraine and the improved production and sales results prove it. The country saw car sales increase by 31.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October 2010, reaching 17,000 units, which is largely due to the popularity of car financing, which started in September. In particular, sales of low-cost cars had shown significant improvements. However, the extent to which Ukraine's industry was hit by the economic downturn is evident from the struggle the country has gone through to return to growth, regardless of the fact that the economy rose out of the recession in Q110. Results released by the State Statistics Committee showed that real GDP expanded 4.8% y-o-y in Q110 which was well above the - 7.0% and -20.3% growth seen in Q409 and Q109 respectively.
BMI forecasts that new vehicle sales will reach 178,355 units by the end of 2010. This is an 8% y-o-y increase when compared with 2009. However, we predict that domestic demand will suffer greatly in 2011 and 2012 as the country will be following strict financial measures which will include limiting new vehicle sales growth to 5% y-o-y each year. Therefore, a return to the pre-crisis levels for Ukraine is firmly out of reach in the short term.
According to figures released by the Ukrainian Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association (UkrAutoprom), auto production throughout the country saw its first month-on-month growth of 2010 in July with levels reaching 7,530 units. This was a rise of 11% compared with June and marked the start of recovery. However, this rise contrasts greatly with the overall production figures, as between January- August 2010 Ukraine's automotive manufacturers produced 45,193 vehicles; a 12% decrease y-o-y. Car production fell by 19%, to 40,161 cars, while truck and bus production both rose to 3,371 and 1,661 respectively. During this period, the largest number of vehicles were produced by Zaporizhia car plant (24,109 vehicles) followed by Bogdan Corporation (11,936), and Kremenchuk car assembly plant (3,965 vehicles).
We believe that there is a fundamental weakness in domestic demand which will continue to make car manufacturers and potential investors nervous about increasing production levels in the near future. International manufacturers have seen mixed results this year. Kia Motors announced its liquidation in September after a ruling which was passed on August 3. This is a big blow for the industry and is sure to rock the confidence of many. However, during the same period, Renault Trucks announced its planned launch of four new dealerships, one of which was to be in Ukraine. Ukraine's auto sector was hit hard by the country's deep recession and the stability seen in 2010 is only the very start of a long period of recovery. The market is still expected to be difficult throughout 2011 as companies still have a significant amount of 2008 vehicles which have not yet been sold.
Ukrainian manufacturer AvtoKrAZ is hoping to bring international investment into the country by developing a number of ideas and incentives including a new model of car. The company is already in talks with a company in the UK and a handful of companies in Japan. No further details were given at the time of writing. However it is a much welcomed boost for the industry as advancement into an Asian market for AvtoKrAZ will pave the way for other domestic manufacturers to follow.
Meanwhile, in November 2010, the Ukrainian parliament issued new requirements for transport fees which sees owners of new vehicles only pay the fees during their first registration; not during consecutive registrations or services as was required prior to the new terms being agreed. Parliament also approved the relevant section of the Tax Code for vehicles which sees the fees for old cars being calculated as a product of the appropriate tax base, tax rate and relevant coefficient.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Ukraine Auto Industry SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Economic SWOT Analysis ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Business Environment SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Regional Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 10
Domestic Demand In Emerging Europe Will Steer Upturn ...................................................................................................................................... 10
Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 14
EMs Show Off Potential ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Western Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings ...................................................................................................... 18
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 19
Production And Sales .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Production ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Sales ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 20
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .............................................................................................................. 24
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 26
Market Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 26
WTO Accession And The Car Market ................................................................................................................................................................. 30
‘Grey’ Market ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: Ukraine – Proportion Of ‘Grey’ Sales By Brand, 9M08 ........................................................................................................................... 32
Manufacturing .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Commercial Vehicles .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Ukraine – Commercial Vehicle Production ............................................................................................................................................. 41
Regulatory Developments ................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Company Monitors ........................................................................................................................................ 44
PSA Peugeot Citroën Regional Profile .................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Financial Woes ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Focus On Faurecia ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Merger Opportunity ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 46
Eye On Eastern Europe ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 49
AvtoKrAZ ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 49
AvtoZAZ .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Eurocar ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Luckiy Avtomobilniy Zavod (LuAZ) .................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data .......................................................................................... 55
Section 1: Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 55
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 56
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ................................................................................................................................................................. 56
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 56
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 57
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......................................................................................................................................................... 57
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 57
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 ......................................................................................................................................................... 58
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 59
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model ......................................................................................................................................................... 59
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60




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