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Turkey Tourism Report Q2 2011


Turkey Tourism Report Q2 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Apr 15, 2011
Quick Overview
Tourism Overview After annual growth of around 4% in foreign visitor arrivals in 2009 – down sharply on the previous year – official provisional data for 2010 show a reasonable increase in visitor arrivals of 6% year-on-year (y-oy). Latest data show that after declining some 5% in December 2010 compared with the same month in 2009, the number of tourist arrivals increased robustly in January 2011, by more than 20% y-o-y (visitors to Istanbul were reportedly up sharply). Data on source markets in 2010 show that the number of German visitors increased by 6% y-o-y. The number of arrivals from Russia increased more sharply, up 8% y-o-y.
The UK is the third largest source market, with the number of visitors increasing more than 7% y-o-y. Hospitality In the wake of very poor figures for the hospitality sector in Q110, recovery in the following quarter and broadly flat growth in Q3, the most recent data for Q410 record modest growth of about 1% y-o-y in the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights, to just over 93mn. Despite the weakness, foreign tourist room nights were up a solid 10% y-o-y in Q4 (accounting for around 60% of the total). By sharp contrast, however, room nights by domestic tourists fell by more than 9% y-o-y.
Attempted Hijacking In January, passengers aboard a Turkish Airlines (THY) flight from Oslo overpowered a would-be hijacker as the plane landed at Istanbul Atatürk Airport. After the aircraft landed, the authorities arrested a man who was carrying a fake bomb. No one was hurt in the incident.
Forecast Scenario After growth in foreign tourist arrivals to Turkey in 2010 came in close to our forecast, we continue to expect growth to edge up slightly over the next two years. The outlook largely hinges on continuing economic recovery in Turkey’s major source markets, including the eurozone, Russia and the UK. In the eurozone, our revised economic growth forecasts are 1.6% and 1.9% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, with growth in Germany – the key market for inbound tourism – forecast at 2.1% and 1.8% over the same period. We also expect solid economic growth of more than 4% in Russia in 2011 and 2012, while in the UK, our forecasts are 2% and 2.6% in the same years. BMI’s expectation of an appreciation trend for the Turkish lira is likely to constrain growth in foreign tourism. Although revised this quarter – with the lira having a volatile start to the year, coming under considerable selling pressure – we anticipate the lira at TRY1.5000/US$ and TRY1.96000/EUR at the end of 2011 and TRY1.4000/US$ and TRY1.7700/EUR by the end of 2012.
Istanbul Atatürk Airport Following modest annual growth in total passenger traffic in 2009 at the country’s main airport, Istanbul Atatürk Airport, growth in international passenger numbers in the first 11 months of 2010 was relatively strong, up more than 11% y-o-y.
Turkish Airlines Turkish Airlines (THY) recorded impressive growth in total passengers in 2010, up by almost 16% y-oy, to more than 29mn. The number of international business class passengers and international transit passengers increased by 28.8% and 13.5% y-o-y respectively. Latest figures for January 2011 show an increase in total passenger numbers of more than 6% compared with the same month a year earlier. In early 2011, THY exercised its option on 10 Airbus A321-200s, for delivery in 2013, and on 15 B737NG aircraft from Boeing, for delivery in 2013-2015.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Turkey Tourism SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Turkey Political SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Turkey Economic SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Turkey Business Environment SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 10
Arrivals ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 11
Table: Arrivals Data, 2006-2015 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 12
Accommodation ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Accommodation Data, 2006-2015 ........................................................................................................................................................... 14
Expenditure ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Tale: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2006-2015 ........................................................................................................................... 16
Inbound Tourism .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 17
Table: Inbound Tourism By Region, 2006-2015 ................................................................................................................................................. 17
Table: Inbound Tourism By Country, 2006-2015 (‘000) ..................................................................................................................................... 18
Outbound Tourism ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2006-2015 ....................................................................................................................................................... 19
Market Overview – Travel .............................................................................................................................. 20
Commercial Airlines ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 20
Table: Key Players – Turkish Commercial Airlines ............................................................................................................................................ 22
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ............................................................................................................... 25
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)........................................................................................................................... 25
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) ................................................................................................................. 28
Market Overview – Hospitality ...................................................................................................................... 30
Accommodation Developments ................................................................................................................................................................................ 31
Health Tourism ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 33
Tourism Infrastructure ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Regional Case Study: Accor .................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries ....................................................................................................... 36
Business Environment Outlook .................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings ................................................................................... 37
BMI’s Security Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ....................................................................................................................... 39
Turkey’s Security Risk Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
City Terrorism Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table: BMI’s Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index ..................................................................................................................... 42
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index ........................................................................................... 43
Europe Security Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Global Assumptions, Q211........................................................................................................................... 50
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 50
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ...................................................................................................................... 51
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ...................................................................................................................................... 51
Developed States ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ................................................................................................................ 52
Emerging Markets ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .............................................................................................................. 54
Consensus Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 ..................................................................................................................................................... 55
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 56
Dedeman Hotels & Resorts International ........................................................................................................................................................... 56
Turkish Airlines .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 60
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 60
Tourism Industry ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Tourism Ratings – Methodology ......................................................................................................................................................................... 61
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators .............................................................................................................................................. 62
Table: Weighting of Components ........................................................................................................................................................................ 63
City Terrorism Rating ................................................................................................................................................................................. 63
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 65
Sources ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65




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