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Thailand Power Report Q1 2011


Thailand Power Report Q1 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Aug 1, 2011
Quick Overview
The new Thailand Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 1.88% of Asia Pacific regionalpower generation by 2015, with a potential growing supply shortfall after system losses and powerindustry usage. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh),representing an increase of 4.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generationto 9,786TWh by 2015, representing growth of 26.7% in 2010-2015.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.Thailand’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 140TWh, or 2.28% of the regionaltotal. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 2.06% of regional thermal generation.
Oil is the dominant fuel in Thailand, accounting for an estimated 44.5% of primary energy demand (PED)in 2010, followed by gas at 36.1%, coal at 14.6% and hydro-electricity with a 1.9% share of PED.
Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,496mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. Thailand’s estimated 2010 market share of 2.29% is set tofall to 2.20% by 2015. An estimated 8TWh of hydro-electric demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 10TWhby 2015, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market easing from an estimated 0.81% to 0.77% overthe period. While there is no existing or near-term nuclear capacity, tentative plans exist for theconstruction of reactors, but at present there is no clear government policy.
Thailand now shares seventh place, with Malaysia, Pakistan and Indonesia, in BMI’s updated PowerBusiness Environment Rating, thanks largely to its energy demand, plus moderate scores in most othercategories. Pakistan and Indonesia both have the potential to pull away, while the presence of thePhilippines below also poses a threat during the next few quarters.
BMI is now forecasting Thai real GDP growth averaging 4.62% per annum between 2010 and 2015, withthe 2011 assumption being an increase of 3.60%. Population is expected to expand from 68.1mn to69.9mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increaseby 50% and 16% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from anestimated 146TWh in 2010 to 174TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage andtransmission losses, there is scope for supply shortfall of 7TWh by 2015, assuming 3.9% average annualgrowth in electricity generation between 2010 and 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Thai electricity generation of 37.7%, which isbelow average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 16.5% in the 2015-2020 period, down from18.2% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to decrease from 21.4% in 2010-2015 to 16.3%, representing41.2% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected to rise by 50% between 2010 and2020, with thermal power generation forecast to increase by 28% over the same period. The consumptionof renewables should at least double between 2010 and 2020. More detailed long-term BMI powerforecasts can be found later in this report.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Industry Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 9
Global ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Asia Pacific Region ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 12
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) ................................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ............................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................. 16
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 17
Primary Energy Demand .................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Power Generation ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Power Consumption ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 20
Regulation And Competition ............................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 21
Power Transmission ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Business Environment ................................................................................................................................. 23
Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................................. 23
Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................... 23
Thailand’s Power Rating .................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 24
Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Legal Framework................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Infrastructure ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Labour Force ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Foreign Investment Policy .................................................................................................................................................................................. 30
Tax Regime ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Security Risk ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 33
Thailand’s Power Outlook .................................................................................................................................................................................. 33
Generation .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Gas-Fired ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Oil-Fired ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Coal-Fired .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Nuclear Energy ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Hydro-Electric .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Renewable Energy .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Power Costs ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 37
Transmission ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Thailand’s Thermal Power Sector. 2008-2015 ........................................................................................................................................ 39
Table: Thailand’s Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 ................................................................................................................................ 40
Table: Thailand’s Power Costs, 2008-2015 ........................................................................................................................................................ 40
Assumptions And Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................................................................................... 41
Long-Term Power Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Thailand - Economic Activity; 2008-2015 .......................................................................................................................................................... 44
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ......................................................................................................... 45
Global Snapshot.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020 ................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Regional Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 45
Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................ 46
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 47
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 48
Table: Asia Pacific Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ..................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................... 50
Thailand Overview .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 50
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................. 50
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 52
Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT) ....................................................................................................................................... 52
Independent Power (Thailand) ........................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Glow Energy ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
CLP/EGCO ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company Limited (RATCH) ................................................................................................. 54
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 56
Power Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 57
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 57




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