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Sweden Telecommunications Report Q1 2013

Sweden Telecommunications Report Q1 2013

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Meta Description Sweden Telecommunications Report Q1 2013
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Sep 1, 2013
Quick Overview
BMI View: The Swedish telecommunications market is one the most developed in the world with high
penetration levels for mobile voice, mobile data, fixed-voice and broadband services. This makes Sweden a
mature market, with the concomitant limits to growth prospects. As well as having a high level of
penetration, price erosion has been less pronounced than in the majority of Western European markets and
operators have managed to continue to grow revenues. Meanwhile, in terms of technology, Sweden is at the
forefront of development with, not only high levels of next generation wireline and wireless data services,
but also machine-to-machine services and other consumer value-added services.
Key Data:
? Broadband growth has slowed as penetration has risen. There was a decline in fixed broadband
subscriptions in the first half of 2012, according to regulatory data, and dedicated mobile broadband
growth has slowed appreciably. Dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions increased 7.6% y-o-y to
Q212, compared to a 24.4% increase y-o-y to Q211.
? PTS data also show that uptake of LTE services has been sluggish. The regulator reported a total of
83,000 LTE subscriptions at the end of June 2012 - equal to 0.6% of the total market. This contradicts
figures reported by TeliaSonera in May 2012, which stated it had over 140,000 LTE subscribers.
Key Developments:
The Swedish mobile market has proved robust in terms of subscriptions and ARPU compared to
many markets in Western Europe in recent years. However, there are signs that trends affecting some
its neighbours may begin to undermine operator financial performance. For instance, PTS reported
data or H112 showing the number of SMSs sent per user per month declined 15.2% from 138 in H211
to 117. BMI believes this indicates the onset of SMS IP substitution as smartphone users increasingly
turn to services such as WhatsApp. This trend has hit operator performance in markets such as the
Netherlands, and can have a significant impact on financial performance because of the high margin
nature of SMS for operators. That said, with Sweden a highly developed market, a large number of
SMSs were already bundled with the subscription fee.
Contrasting with the threat of SMS IP substitution is the ongoing growth in machine-to-machine (M2M)
subscriptions. The Swedish market is a global leader with the presence of incumbent TeliaSonera, as well as
global frontrunner Telenor Connexion. Both operators achieved strong subscription growth y-o-y to the
end of June 2012 with Telenor Connexion subscriptions increasing 56.6% to 1.638mn and TeliaSonera
increasing subscriptions 18.8% y-o-y to 461,900. BMI expects both operators will continue to benefit from
growth in Sweden as they expand into new verticals.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 7
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 7
SWOT Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 9
Political ................................................................................................................................................ 13
Economic .............................................................................................................................................. 14
Business Environment .............................................................................................................................. 15
Industry Business Environment Overview ...................................................................... 16
Business Environment Outlook ................................................................................................................... 16
Industry Rewards .................................................................................................................................. 17
Industry Risks ....................................................................................................................................... 18
Country Risks And Rewards ..................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Sweden ................................................................................................................................................. 20
Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 23
Mobile .................................................................................................................................................. 23
Table: Industry Forecast - Mobile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
ARPU ................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Industry Forecast - Mobile ARPU (SEK) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Fixed Line ............................................................................................................................................. 26
Table: Industry Forecast - Fixed-Line . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Internet ................................................................................................................................................. 27
Table: Industry Forecast - Internet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 30
Regional Perspective .............................................................................................................................. 30
Table: Sweden Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Key Developments ................................................................................................................................. 31
Mobile Growth ..................................................................................................................................... 32
Market Share And Net Additions ............................................................................................................... 33
Table: Swedish Mobile Market, September 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Subscription Mix ................................................................................................................................... 35
Usage (ARPU/MOU) .............................................................................................................................. 36
Networks ............................................................................................................................................. 38
Table: Mobile Contract Wins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Mobile Content/Value Added Services ........................................................................................................ 45
Table: Value-Added Services Timeline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Mobile Operator Data ............................................................................................................................ 50
Table: Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Table: TeliaSonera . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Table: Telenor Mobil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Table: Tele2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Europe - Western Europe Mobile Content .................................................................................................... 52
Succeeding In A Sea Of Content ................................................................................................................ 54
All Eyes On Data .................................................................................................................................. 56
Making Machines Pay ............................................................................................................................. 57
Fixed Line ............................................................................................................................................. 59
Broadband ............................................................................................................................................ 62
Mobile Broadband ................................................................................................................................ 66
Wireline Contract Wins ........................................................................................................................... 68
Table: Wireline Contract Wins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Industry Trends And Developments ................................................................................ 69
Industry Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................. 69
Regulatory Development .................................................................................................. 71
Regulatory Development ........................................................................................................................... 71
Table: Sweden: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Competitive Landscape .................................................................................................... 75
Competitive Landscape ............................................................................................................................. 75
Table: Key Players - Sweden Telecoms Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Table: Selected Operator Financial Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Company Profile ................................................................................................................ 76
TeliaSonera AB ...................................................................................................................................... 76
TeliaSonera Mobile ................................................................................................................................. 84
Telenor Sweden ...................................................................................................................................... 89
Tele2 AB ............................................................................................................................................... 95
Hi3G Access Sweden .............................................................................................................................. 101
Com Hem ............................................................................................................................................ 106
Regional Overview .......................................................................................................... 111
Telit Communications: Opportunities Abound But Beware Commoditisation ..................................................... 111
Table: Telit Communications Financial Performance, 2009-2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
Beware Commoditisation ....................................................................................................................... 112
Differentiation And Value Added Key To Success ....................................................................................... 113
The Road Ahead ................................................................................................................................. 116
Demographic Forecast ................................................................................................... 117
Demographic Forecast ........................................................................................................................... 117
Table: Sweden's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
Table: Sweden's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Table: Sweden's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
Table: Sweden's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
Glossary ........................................................................................................................... 121
Glossary ............................................................................................................................................. 121
Table: Glossary Of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
Methodology .................................................................................................................... 123
Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 123
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings ................................................................................................... 124
Table: Ratings Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126




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