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South Africa Freight Transport Report Q2 2011


South Africa Freight Transport Report Q2 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Apr 15, 2011
Quick Overview
On a global level, we continue to see risks to all three core shipping sectors (container and dry and liquid bulk), with overcapacity and a drop in demand continually threatening to push down rates and impinge on lines' profits. As austerity measures take hold in Europe and the US continues to have high unemployment and recover from the downturn sluggishly, shipping levels may slow their growth considerably.
As regards South Africa, the country's ports sector is performing well, registering year-on-year (y-oy) growth in 2010 and we expect this to continue over the mid term, though at a much more sedate level. The country's rail freight sector is also performing well as the country continues to export its commodities to China. this will be helped by further investment also.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 Richards Bay throughput growth forecast is 0.99% and is set to average 1.52% over the mid term (2011-2015).
?? 2011 South Africa rail freight growth forecast is 3.32% and is set to average 4.57% per annum to 2015.
?? South Africa 2011 total trade real growth forecast at 6.95%. Key Industry Trends New DHL LCL Service To Help India And South Africa Meet Bilateral Trade Targets In January 2011, Global logistics giant DHL launched a new less than container load (LCL) service between India and South Africa. BMI notes that this is just the latest example of international courier firms expanding in the subcontinent, which should help the two countries realise their aim of achieving bilateral trade worth US$15bn by 2014.
Iron Ore Supply Chain Overhaul Under Way With Investment In Equipment, Railway And Port South Africa's Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) is investing in the country's iron ore supply chain by ordering 32 new locomotives that will be used on the Sishen to Saldanha iron ore line. The impact of Chinese demand for iron ore is reflected in the throughput figures of the port of Saldanha in 2009, when the facility's total throughput increased by 21.37%. South Africa no doubt wishes to increase its share iron ore exports to China but is up against the majors of Australia and Brazil, making a streamlined supply chain a necessity.
South African Port Throughput Up, Long-Term Outlook Rosy Year-end 2010 throughput figures for the South African ports sector from ports operator Transnet show throughput growth, reflecting the global uptick in seaborne trade that occurred last year as countries around the world began to recover from the global economic crisis. BMI expects this growth to continue in the years to come, as trade routes shift increasingly towards emerging markets, making South Africa a vital link between Asia and Africa.
Key Risks To Outlook The key risks to our South Africa freight forecasts are to the upside, as the country invests in its freight transport infrastructure. Industrial actions and the perennial threat of adverse weather conditions, provide downside risks, however.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
South Africa Freight Transport Industry SWOT ................................................................................................................................................... 7
South Africa Political SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
South Africa Economic SWOT .............................................................................................................................................................................. 8
South Africa Business Environment SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................... 9
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 10
Multi-Modal ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 10
Road ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Rail ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Air ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Water .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13
Industry Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................ 14
Multi-Modal And Logistics ................................................................................................................................................................................. 14
Air ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Road ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Rail ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Maritime ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ............................................................................................................... 19
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)........................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) ................................................................................................................. 22
Industry Forecast .......................................................................................................................................... 24
Macroeconomic Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................. 24
Rail Freight ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 24
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2015 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Maritime Freight ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Table: Maritime Freight – Throughput, 2008-2015 (‘000 tonnes) ....................................................................................................................... 25
Trade Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 26
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015 .................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) ............................................................................................................. 27
Table: South Africa’s Main Import Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn) ..................................................................................................................... 28
Table: South Africa’s Main Export Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn) ..................................................................................................................... 28
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 29
Transnet .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 29
South African Airways (SAA) .............................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data ................................................................................. 34
Section 1: Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 35
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 36
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......................................................................................................................................................... 36
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 36
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 ......................................................................................................................................................... 37
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 38
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 38
Transport Industry .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Sources .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39




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