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Slovakia Real Estate Report Q3 2011

Slovakia Real Estate Report Q3 2011

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Additional Information

Price	$530.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Jan 7, 2011

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Quick Overview

Slovakia has had a slow process of recovery but we expect a rebound in both household consumption and gross fixed capital formation, which will provide a positive boost for the country’s economy. Consumer confidence recovered in April 2011 to -29.8, from -32.2 in March. As private consumption improves and unemployment drops, the commercial real estate market will benefit in all three sub-sectors – retail, office and industrial space.
Rents for commercial real estate in Slovakia generally rose in H110 compared with 2009. The increases of maximum levels were all between 5% and 10%. However, when we spoke to our in-country sources again towards the end of 2010, it became apparent that rents in all three sub-sectors in both Bratislava and Kosice that dropped down, below their levels at the end of 2009. Conversely, rents across all three subsectors in Trencin did not move, staying put at the levels they had reached by the middle of 2010.
Looking forward, our in-country sources anticipate that we will see rents rise throughout 2011, across all three sub-sectors in Trencin and across the retail and industrial sub-sectors in Kosice. Bratislava looks set to have stable rental rates and they are unlikely to move throughout 2011.
Some of the key opportunities currently in the real estate market are:
?? Foreign developers have access to credit that local firms are less likely to reach and their interest in the country has been heightened by the ‘better value’ propositions now available. Capital values dropped so thoroughly that yields have risen and the cost of purchasing and renting property in the country has become more affordable.
?? Demand for retail space in good locations is strong and King Sturge reports that around 16,000 sq m of new retail space is likely to become available in 2011.
?? The vacancy rate for industrial property is extremely low – Cushman and Wakefield put it at just 3.7% in May 2011 – providing a massive opportunity for the right kinds of new development. The agent pointed out that no new projects were delivered in early 2011.
?? Local sources in the country expect Bratislava’s commercial real estate rents – which are expected not to move during 2011 – to rise by anywhere up to 10% in 2012.
?? Slovakia’s retail space market received around 235,000sq m of new space in 2010, according to King Sturge. Of this, 55,000sq m was situated in Bratislava’s Eurovea development, built by Ballymore Properties. The real estate agent points out that regional shopping schemes are becoming more popular and so developments are popping up outside the major urban areas.
Some key risks to the current real estate market are: ?? King Sturge reports a rise in demand for residential properties in the second half of 2010, up by 9.5% on the first half of the year but also highlights the risks to any sustained growth – rising inflation and interest rates.
?? Slovakia has high unemployment, nearly 14% in April 2011 (according to Eurostat), so the office space marketplace is still seeing cautious businesses waiting to see more signs of recovery before expanding.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Slovakia Real Estate/Construction SWOT............................................................................................................................................................. 7
Slovakia Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Slovakia Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Real Estate Market Overview .......................................................................................................................... 9
Table: Slovakia’s Real Estate Market – Historic Rents, 2009 And 2010 (m2/month, EUR) ................................................................................. 10
Table: Slovakia’s Real Estate Market – Net Yields, 2010 And 2011 (%) ............................................................................................................. 10
Table: Slovakia’s Real Estate Market – Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid-2010 .......................................................................................... 11
Real Estate Market Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 12
Real Estate Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 12
Table: Slovakia’s Real Estate Market – Rentals, 2010-2012 (m²/month, EUR) ................................................................................................... 13
Table: Slovakia’s Real Estate Market – Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2015 (%) ....................................................................................................... 13
Construction And Infrastructure Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Slovakia – Infrastructure And Construction Industry Data, 2008-2020 ................................................................................................... 14
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Slovakia – GDP By Expenditure, 2008-2015 ........................................................................................................................................... 17
Business Environment ................................................................................................................................. 18
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating ..................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Europe Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating .............................................................................................................. 18
Slovakia’s RECBER ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 19
Slovakia’s Business Environment ....................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings .............................................................................................................................................. 20
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating ................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Table: Labour Force Quality .............................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Table: Annual FDI Inflows Into Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia ................................................................................................. 27
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................. 28
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2000-2008 (US$mn) ........................................................................................................................................ 29
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 31
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 32
Ballymore ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Convergence Capital .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Cresco Group ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Eastfield Atlas ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Metrostav SK ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Orco Property Group .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Quinlan Private Golub ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 38
TriGranit............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 39
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 40
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 40
Construction Industry ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Bank Lending ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating ..................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .......................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Project Finance Ratings Indicators .................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Design And Construction Phase .............................................................................................................................................................. 46
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction ......................................................................................................... 47
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities .................................................................................................................. 48
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport .................................................................................................................................. 49
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 50