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Slovakia Power Report Q3 2011

Slovakia Power Report Q3 2011

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Additional Information

Price	$530.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Jun 24, 2011

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Quick Overview

The new Slovakia Power Report from BMI forecasts that country’s power consumption will rise from 27.3TWh in 2010 to 30.9TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing average annual growth of 1.2% in 2011-2020. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a supply shortfall remaining close to the estimated 2.5TWh level seen in 2010, assuming 1.4% average annual growth in power generation during the period.
Slovak power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 24.7TWh, having failed to recover from the depressed 2009 level. BMI is forecasting an average 2.1% annual increase to 27.4TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to decline during the period to 2015, and continue falling later in the decade as nuclear, hydro and renewables take market share.
We expect gas-fired power generation to climb 1.6% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7% forecast to 2020. Gas-fired generation should therefore reach 1.5TWh by 2015 and almost 1.6TWh by 2020. The share of total Slovak power generation should therefore increase from 5.6% to 5.8% by the end of the forecast period. Coal-fired generation will have accounted for 18.2% of the country’s total generation in 2010, according to BMI estimates. We expect the fuel’s market share to be 14.4% by 2015, firing a projected 3.9TWh. By 2020, coal’s share of generation is forecast at 11.7%, representing 3.32TWh.
Nuclear power generation is one of the key potential growth areas for the Slovakian electricity sector, but the country has suffered a major setback through the enforced closure of two reactors. This has reduced overall generating capacity. There are long-term plans to add new reactors, but the supply reduction will be ongoing over the short-to-medium term. Our 2010 assumption for nuclear generation is 13.5TWh following the reactor closures. New capacity is expected to be operational by 2012/13, taking generation back to a forecast 16.6TWh by 2015.
Slovakia now holds seventh place in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, placing just below Hungary. It may have the longer-term potential to challenge Hungary, which lies just one point above it, and should be able to keep Ukraine at bay. The current score reflects the modest size of the country’s electricity market and infrastructure and a low level of population growth. Country risk factors also offset the country’s industry scores to some extent.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Industry Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 7
Global ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Global Table: Total Generation Data (TWh) ........................................................................................................................................................ 7
Global Table: Total Consumption Data (TWh) ..................................................................................................................................................... 8
Global Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data (MW) ......................................................................................................................... 9
Regional Industry Overview .......................................................................................................................... 11
Central/Eastern Europe ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Table: Total Generation Data (TWh) .................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: Total Consumption Data (TWh)............................................................................................................................................................... 12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data (MW) ........................................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings ........................................................................................................ 17
Slovakia Power Rating ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 17
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 18
Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Slovakia Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ......................................................................................................... 19
Table: Slovakia Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ....................................................................................................... 21
Table: Slovakia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data ...................................................................................................... 23
Table: Slovakia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data ...................................................................................................... 23
Table: Slovakia Power Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................ 23
Table: Slovakia Power Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................. 24
Table: Slovakia Total Net Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................ 24
Table: Slovakia Total Net Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................. 24
Table: Slovakia Consumption by Energy Sector Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .................................................................................... 24
Table: Slovakia Consumption by Energy Sector Long-Term Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................. 25
Table: Slovakia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) ................................................................................... 27
Table: Slovakia Electrcity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (MW) .................................................................................. 27
Slovakia Power Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Generation .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Gas-Fired ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Oil-Fired ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Coal-Fired .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Nuclear Energy ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Hydro-Electric .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Renewable Energy .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 32
Transmission ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................................................................................... 32
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 33
SEPS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
VSE ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
ZSE ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
SE ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
SSE ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
CEZ ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 36
SE ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 38
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 38
Power Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39