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Russia Tourism Report Q3 2011

Russia Tourism Report Q3 2011

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Price $530.00
Meta Description Tourism Overview
Preliminary national 2010 data on foreign visitors to Russia show modest recovery in arrivals of 4.4%
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Oct 6, 2011
Quick Overview
Tourism Overview
Preliminary national 2010 data on foreign visitors to Russia show modest recovery in arrivals of 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), after a slight fall earlier in the year (and a sharp annual fall in 2009). Key source markets outside the former Soviet Union, such as China and Germany, recorded moderate growth in arrivals y-o-y. Other key source markets, including Finland, Poland, the UK and the US, all recorded negative annual growth in arrivals.
Forecast Scenario
We continue to maintain our forecast of only modest growth in foreign visitor arrivals to Russia in 2011 (about 1% y-o-y), with growth edging up in 2012. In an important source market for tourists, the eurozone, steady economic growth of 1.8% is forecast for 2011 (up marginally on estimated growth in 2010), with similar growth expected in 2012. We believe that on balance the fundamentals for the Russian rouble remain appreciatory and we look for the unit to reach or get near to RUB32.50/basket in the coming months. However, we believe that the case for rouble appreciation will become weaker in the second half of 2011. Medium-term appreciation of the rouble, though, will constrain tourism.
Moscow Domodedovo Airport In 2010, total traffic rebounded significantly at Moscow Domodedovo Airport, with passenger numbers increasing by around 18% y-o-y to 22.3mn (after an 8% fall in 2009). Latest data for Q111 show traffic up 4.2% y-o-y, with international passenger numbers rising some 3%.
Aeroflot/Transaero
In the first two months of 2011, the number of passengers on the Russian national carrier Aeroflot increased strongly, by more than 18% y-o-y to almost 1.8mn passengers. Aeroflot and Boeing signed an agreement in March on the order of six Boeing 777-300ER aircraft (extended range) and two Boeing 777- 200ERs. Also in March, a code-share agreement between Aeroflot and Aerosvit, a Ukrainian carrier, came into effect on the following routes: Moscow-Kiev, Moscow-Dnepropetrovsk and Moscow- Simferopol. According to preliminary figures for FY10 (January-December), Russian airline Transaero recorded total revenue of RUB61.9bn (US$2.0bn), markedly above its target for the year and representing a 60% increase on FY09.
Moscow Airport Privatisations The venture to privatise Moscow’s two state-owned airports – the Sheremetyevo and Vnukovo airports – is part of a wider privatisation drive initiated in early 2011. While the airports will remain under state control until further expansion has taken place – in order to increase the value and attractiveness of the assets – we believe that this sale could become one of the most highly anticipated in the European airports sector in the coming years.
Accommodation Developments In early 2011, Rezidor Hotel Group announced two new Park Inn by Radisson properties, as part of a strategic development agreement (signed in 2009) with St Petersburg-based hotel management company Regional Hotel Chain (RHC). The Park Inn Volgograd, in the port of Volgograd (in the south west), and the Park Inn Nizhny Novgorod (in central Russia), will both have 150 rooms and are expected to open in 2013. Rezidor Hotel Group is also expected to open a new hotel in Novosibirsk in the last quarter of 2014: the 150-room Park Inn Novosibirsk.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Russia Tourism SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Russia Political SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Russia Economic SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Russia Business Environment SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 10
Arrivals .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 12
Accommodation ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless stated) ........................................................................................................................... 14
Expenditure .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 15
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015 ........................................................................................................................... 15
Inbound Tourism ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2007-2015 .................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Outbound Tourism ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 ....................................................................................................................................................... 18
Market Overview – Travel .............................................................................................................................. 20
Commercial Airlines ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 23
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .......................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)........................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) ................................................................................................................. 30
Market Overview – Hospitality ...................................................................................................................... 32
Accommodation ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Accommodation Developments ........................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Gaming .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Business Environment Outlook .................................................................................................................... 39
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings ................................................................................... 39
BMI’s Security Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ....................................................................................................................... 41
Russia’s Security Risk Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
City Terrorism Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 42
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index ........................................................................................... 43
Europe Security Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Global Assumptions, Q311........................................................................................................................... 50
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 50
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ................................................................................................... 51
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ...................................................................................................................................... 51
Developed States ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ................................................................................................................ 52
Emerging Markets.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .............................................................................................................. 54
Consensus Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 55
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) ......................................................................................... 55
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 56
Aeroflot ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
S7 Airlines .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59
Transaero ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 61
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 63
Tourism Industry ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Tourism Ratings – Methodology ......................................................................................................................................................................... 64
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators .............................................................................................................................................. 65
Table: Weighting of Components ........................................................................................................................................................................ 66
City Terrorism Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 66
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology....................................................................................................................................................... 68
Sources .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68




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