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Romania Metals Report Q2 2011

Romania Metals Report Q2 2011

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Additional Information

Price	$530.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Apr 8, 2011

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Quick Overview

Romanian steel production expanded rapidly in 2010 and is expected to grow further, assisted by strong levels of investment by steelmakers in response to the expansion of domestic steel consuming industries, such as the burgeoning car industry.
In 2010, Romanian crude steel output grew 41.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 3.90mn tonnes, helped by a revival of steel markets and investment by steelmakers ArcelorMittal, TMK and Tenaris in modernising and restructuring production. Mechel’s Romanian facilities reported large increases in output with steel production up 38% y-o-y to over 827,000 tonnes and the volume of wire and wire products also up 38% to over 152,000 tonnes. It reported that crude steel output at Mechel Targoviste had reached pre-crisis levels and that the Braila mill tripled its output of rolled profiles.
Mechel’s Otelu Rosu plant was due to commence production at its modernised steel casting operations in Q111, further bolstering production. Investment continues to grow as steelmakers regard the country as well positioned to cater for a medium-term recovery in EU demand. ArcelorMittal Galati is planning to double its production capacity to more than 4.2mn tonnes per annum (tpa) from January 2011, when the EUR53mn upgrade of its blast furnace No.5 will be completed. It is also proceeding with the construction of a new steel mill in Hunedoara with a new EUR43mn rolling mill, due to come online by 2012. The company is also increasing liquid steel production to 700,000tpa to raise output of round semis at its Tubular Products Roman plant.
The outlook for 2011 remains positive, with demand generated by the construction and automotive industries. The automotive industry will remain the most important segment for the Romanian steel industry, with flat products making up 62% of hot-rolled output and much of that production dedicated to serving the car industry. In terms of capacity, both Dacia and Ford, the two largest auto majors in Romania, have been ramping up production. Ford’s Craiova plant, formerly owned by Daewoo, will produce 300,000 engines and CBUs by the time it is fully operational – now scheduled for 2013. In terms of the longs market, Romania's construction sector was hit particularly hard by the global financial crisis, with two years of deep recession in 2009 and 2010. Poor performance in the construction sector has had a deleterious impact on the production of long steel products such as reinforced bars, construction profiles and cold roll-formed sections. However, our outlook for a relatively strong rebound in construction industry growth in 2011 looks set to be realised, based on a number of contracts awarded in the early months of the year. We are confident that the construction industry should return to positive territory in 2011, with robust growth of 4.6% forecast. BMI estimates that concrete reinforcing bar output fell 48.7% y-o-y in 2009 to 406,485 tonnes and experienced a modest export-led recovery of 3.7% to over 420,200 tonnes in 2010. Serious recovery is only likely from 2011, when the domestic market picks up.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Romania Metal Industry SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................ 6
Romania Political SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Romania Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Romania Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Global Market Overview.................................................................................................................................. 8
Steel To Average US$580/Tonne In 2011 ............................................................................................................................................................. 8
Table: BMI’s Steel Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Table: Steel Prices (US$m/t) ................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Commodities Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 14
Commodity Strategy – Metals Update ...................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Aluminium........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Copper ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Lead .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Nickel .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Tin....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Zinc ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Gold .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Regional Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 20
Forecast Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Romanian Aluminium Market, 2004-2008 ............................................................................................................................................... 26
Table: Romania’s Metals Industry (‘000 tonnes unless stated), 2008-2015 ......................................................................................................... 27
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Table: Romania – GDP By Expenditure, 2008-2015 .......................................................................................................................................... 30
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 31
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 34
Alro SA ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Mechel ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 35
ArcelorMittal ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Tenaris Silcotub .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Global Assumptions, Q211........................................................................................................................... 39
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 39
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ...................................................................................................................... 40
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ...................................................................................................................................... 40
Developed States ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ................................................................................................................ 41
Emerging Markets .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
Table: Emerging Market’s GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .............................................................................................................. 43
Consensus Forecasts........................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 ..................................................................................................................................................... 44
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 45
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 45
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data ........................................................................................ 46
Section 1: Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 48
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......................................................................................................................................................... 48
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 48
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010 ......................................................................................................................................................... 49