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Poland Metals Report Q2 2011


Poland Metals Report Q2 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Apr 8, 2011
Quick Overview
The Polish steel and aluminium industries passed the worst in 2010, but the rate of recovery in 2011 and beyond will be compromised by the prospect of the strengthening value of the zloty against the euro. In 2010, Polish crude steel output grew 12.3% y-o-y to 8.01mn tonnes, around 260,000 tonnes less than BMI had estimated due to a sharp drop in output in Q410. In December, monthly output was down to 580,000 tonnes, which was more typical of earlier in the year and just 5% up on the previous December. A cold winter did not help consumption and production levels and H210 output was compromised by ArcelorMittal Poland’s decision to take one blast furnace at Kraków out of action for repairs in August. The situation is likely to improve going into 2011 with ArcelorMittal Poland restarting the furnace in mid-March, although one other furnace will remain out of commission. The company is also repairing the No.3 blast furnace at D?browa, which was idled in October 2008. It is expected to resume operations in 2011 or 2012, when the steel market is forecast to pick up.
Growth in 2010 was mainly due to inventory building and exports. This growth rate will not be repeated in 2011 as domestic consumption and fixed investment is unlikely to make up for the expected shortfall. The Polish steel industry’s outlook for 2011 remains challenging, with the country’s monetary authorities planning interest rate rises to combat inflation. This will both limit domestic consumption growth and put upward pressure on the zloty, which BMI believes will strengthen from PLN3.95/EUR at end-2010 to PLN3.62/EUR at end-2011. At a time of heightened competition and rising raw material costs, this would weaken the competitiveness of Polish steel and significantly squeeze production margins.
In the aluminium sector, despite the closure of domestic primary production, Polish aluminium net imports grew by around 11.0% to 246,300 tonnes in 2010, following a 31.5% fall in consumption to 407,000 tonnes in 2009. We estimate consumption growth of 8% with lower than expected growth in the automotive industry and the revival of the car market taking longer than we had anticipated. Nevertheless, by 2015, demand will approach 750,000 tonnes as the automotive industry picks up speed, up 70% over 2010 levels and representing a new high.
The revival of the Polish steel industry is likely to be led primarily by domestic consumption, with export markets of domestic steel producers set to remain in the doldrums. Domestic longs demand is heavily influenced by the construction industry, which had enjoyed high rates of growth until the economic crisis led to a burst in the housing bubble. Although there are record-low interest rates in the country, the market is unlikely to return to previous highs any time soon, though the construction industry grew by an estimated 4.6% in 2010 and is set to grow by 4.5% in 2011. The country’s export-oriented automotive industry will be crucial to determining the market for flat products, which comprise 37% of hot rolled volume. Automotive production in Poland fell marginally in 2010, by 1.4% y-o-y to 887,241 units, according to estimates from the country's autos research agency, Samar. This was the second consecutive annual decline in vehicle production in the country. Despite the declines, BMI believes Poland is fairly well placed to achieve production growth averaging 5% a year between 2011 and 2015, and we expect the country to be producing more than 1mn units a year as early as 2013. As such, the slump in flat steel demand is likely to come to an end in 2011, although it will take some time to return to pre-recession engineering flat steel production and consumption rates.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Poland Metals Industry SWOT.............................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Poland Political SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Poland Economic SWOT....................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Poland Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Global Market Overview................................................................................................................................ 11
Steel Forecast ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Table: BMI’s Steel Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: Steel Prices (US$m/t) ............................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Commodities Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 17
Commodity Strategy – Metals Update ...................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Aluminium........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Copper ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17
Lead .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Nickel .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 18
Tin....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Zinc ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Gold .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Regional Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 22
Forecast Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 26
Table: Polish Metals Industry, 2007-2015 (‘000 tonnes unless stated) ................................................................................................................ 29
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Table: Poland – GDP Contribution To Growth, 2008-2015 ............................................................................................................................... 31
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 32
Aluminium........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Steel .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Energy ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 33
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 34
Impexmetal ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
ArcelorMittal Poland .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Z?omrex Group ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
CMC Zawiercie SA ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Global Assumptions, Q211........................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 38
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ...................................................................................................................... 39
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ...................................................................................................................................... 39
Developed States ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ................................................................................................................ 41
Emerging Markets .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Table: Emerging Market’s GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .............................................................................................................. 42
Consensus Forecasts........................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 ..................................................................................................................................................... 43
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 44
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 44
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data ........................................................................................... 45
Section 1: Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 46
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ................................................................................................................................................................. 46
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 46
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 47
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......................................................................................................................................................... 47
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 47
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 ......................................................................................................................................................... 48




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