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Poland Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012

Poland Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012

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Additional Information

Price	$1,175.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Sep 26, 2012

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Quick Overview

Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries
surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER),
a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency
across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment
Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings
calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits
of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and
30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the 'Limits of potential returns' includes market elements that are specific to the
banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the
70% of the CBBER that takes into account the 'Limits of potential returns', the market elements have a
60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the 'Risks to
realisation of returns' also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI's
assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the
risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though,
three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements
of the 'Limits of potential returns' are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account
for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher
than the country elements of the 'Limits of potential returns', it usually implies that the banking sector is
(very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the
country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually
means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and
financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the 'Risks to the realisation of returns' category, the
market elements (i.e. how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect
competition within it, and Moody's Investor Services' ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly
different from BMI's long-term risk rating.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
Table: Levels (PLNbn) .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Table: Levels At April 2012 .................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) ...................................................................................................................................... 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 ....................................................................................................................................... 6
Table: Projected Levels (PLNbn), 2008-2016 ....................................................................................................................................................... 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn), 2008-2016 ....................................................................................................................................................... 6
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Poland Commercial Banking SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Poland Political SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Poland Economic SWOT....................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Poland Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Business Environment Outlook ...................................................................................................................... 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating .................................................................................................................................................. 9
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings ................................................................................................................................ 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 10
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................. 11
Global Commercial Banking Outlook ........................................................................................................... 12
Regional Outlooks ......................................................................................................................................... 19
CEE Banking: Three Banking Sectors With Bright Futures ..................................................................................................................................... 19
Europe Banking Sector Outlook ................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 ................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................. 25
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios ............................................................................................................. 26
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 .......................................................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) ................................................................................................. 28
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) ..................................................................................................................................... 29
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................. 30
Poland Banking Sector Outlook ................................................................................................................... 31
Well Prepared For More Difficult 2012 & 2013 ...................................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: Risk Metrics ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Economic Outlook ......................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Poland . Economic Activity ..................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 41
Market Structure ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table: Protagonists In Poland's Commercial Banking Sector ............................................................................................................................. 41
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe............................................................................................................................................... 41
List Of Banks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Foreign-Owned Banks In Poland ............................................................................................................................................................ 42
Poland Commercial Banking Report Q4 2012
c Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Other Banks Identified By The NBP ........................................................................................................................................................ 43
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 45
Powszechna Kasa Oszczednoceci Bank Polski ................................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 ........................................................................................................................................................ 46
Table: Balance Sheet (PLNmn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 46
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 46
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2011 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Bank Polska Kasa Opieki (Pekao) ...................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2004-2010 ........................................................................................................................................................ 49
Table: Balance Sheet (PLNmn, unless stated), 2004-2009 .................................................................................................................................. 49
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2004-2009 .................................................................................................................................. 50
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2004-2009 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 50
Bank BPH ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 ........................................................................................................................................................ 52
Table: Balance Sheet (PLNmn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 52
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 52
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2011 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 53
ING Bank .l.ski .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 54
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 ........................................................................................................................................................ 55
Table: Balance Sheet (PLNmn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 55
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 55
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2011 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 56
BRE Bank............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 57
Bank Handlowy w Warszawie ............................................................................................................................................................................. 58
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 ........................................................................................................................................................ 59
Table: Balance Sheet (PLNmn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 59
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 59
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2011 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Bank Zachodni WBK ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 61
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 ........................................................................................................................................................ 62
Table: Balance Sheet (PLNmn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 62
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 63
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2011 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Bank Millennium ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 64
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 ........................................................................................................................................................ 64
Table: Balance Sheet (PLNmn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 65
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 65
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2011 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 65
Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego ......................................................................................................................................................................... 66
Table: Key Statistics For Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, 2006-2008 (PLNmn) ................................................................................................ 67
Kredyt Bank ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 68
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2012 ........................................................................................................................................................ 69
Table: Balance Sheet (PLNmn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 69
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn), 2006-2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 69
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2011 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 70
BMI Banking Sector Methodology ................................................................................................................ 71
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating ................................................................................................................................................ 72
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale.................................................................................................... 73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .......................................................................................................................................................................... 74