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Pakistan Power Report Q1 2011


Pakistan Power Report Q1 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Aug 1, 2011
Quick Overview
The new Pakistan Power Report forecasts Pakistan will account for 1.13% of Asia Pacific regional powergeneration by 2015, with the chance of possible generation surplus if investment rises and the country’ssubstantial transmission losses can be brought under control. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generationassumption for 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.6% over the previousyear. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,786TWh by 2015, representing growth of26.7% in 2010-2015.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.Pakistan’s thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 64.2TWh, or 1.04% of the regional total. By 2015,the country is expected to account for 0.84% of regional thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel in Pakistan, accounting for an estimated 50.9% of primary energy demand(PED) in 2010, followed by oil at 31.0%, hydro-electric energy at 9.6% and coal with a 6.9% share.Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,496mn toe by 2015, representing 20.6% growth from theestimated 2010 level. Pakistan’s estimated 2010 market share of 1.54% is set to ease to 1.51% by 2015.Pakistan’s estimated 2.9TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 7.0TWh by 2015, with itsshare of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from an estimated 0.53% to 0.90% over the period.
Pakistan now shares seventh place with Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia in BMI’s updated PowerBusiness Environment Ratings, thanks to its relatively high level of renewables (mostly hydro) usage andhealthy energy demand growth prospects. Several country risk factors offset the industry strength, but thecountry is in a good position to keep clear of the Philippines below.
BMI now forecasts Pakistan real GDP growth averaging 3.0% a year between 2010 and 2015, with the2011 growth assumption being 0.7%. The population is expected to expand from 173mn to 194mn, withGDP per capita increasing by 33% and electricity consumption per capita rising by 3%. Powerconsumption is expected to increase from an estimated 75TWh in 2010 to 87TWh by the end of theforecast period. After power industry usage and transmission losses, there is scope for a supply surplus by2015 of almost 5TWh, assuming 2.9% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2010-2015.Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Pakistani electricity generation of 33.0%,which is below average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 15.3% in the 2015-2020 period,unchanged from 15.3% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to decrease from 24.7% in 2010-2015 to 22.4%,representing 52.6% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 61% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 4%between 2010 and 2020, with nuclear usage up 314% from a low base. More details of the long-termBMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Pakistan Power Business Environment SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................... 7
Pakistan Political SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Pakistan Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Industry Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 10
Global ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015 ................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Asia Pacific Region ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................................. 12
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) ................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ............................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................. 17
Pakistan Market Overview ............................................................................................................................. 18
Primary Energy Demand .................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Power Generation ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Power Consumption ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 20
Regulation and Competition ............................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 21
Power Transmission ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Business Environment ................................................................................................................................. 23
Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................................. 23
Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................... 23
Pakistan’s Power Rating..................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 24
Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Legal Framework................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Infrastructure ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Labour Force ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Foreign Investment Policy .................................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Tax Regime ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Security Risk ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 34
Pakistan Power Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Generation .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Gas-Fired ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Oil-Fired ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Coal-Fired .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Nuclear Energy ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Hydro-electric ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Renewable Energy .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Power Costs ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
Transmission ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table: Pakistan’s Power Sector, 2008-2015 ....................................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Pakistan’s Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015......................................................................................................................................... 43
Table: Pakistan’s Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 ................................................................................................................................. 44
Table: Pakistan Power Costs, 2008-2015 ........................................................................................................................................................... 44
Assumptions and Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario ................................................................................................................................................................ 45
Long-Term Power Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Pakistan – Economic Activity; 2006-2015 ............................................................................................................................................... 48
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ......................................................................................................... 49
Global Snapshot.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 49
Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020 ................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Regional Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 49
Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................ 50
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 51
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 52
Table: Asia Pacific Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ..................................................................................................................... 53
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................... 54
Pakistan Country Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................ 54
Methodology and Risks to Forecasts .................................................................................................................................................................. 55
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 56
Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) .......................................................................................................................................... 56
Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC) .................................................................................................................................................... 57
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 58
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 58
Power Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59




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