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Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q2 2011


Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q2 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Feb 17, 2011
Quick Overview
BMI View: While Pakistan is a major producer of several key agricultural commodities, the sector continues to suffer from major inefficiencies. Any major improvements, however, will have to take a backseat in the short term as the government concentrates on rebuilding the agriculture sector in the aftermath of the country's worst floods in August 2010. Over the longer term, we are most optimistic for the poultry, dairy and rice sectors on the back of increased investment flows into the industries.
Key Trends:
?? Wheat production out to 2014/15: 7.4% to 25.8mn tonnes. We expect the country to be reliant on wheat imports by then as consumption outstrips production.
?? Sugar production out to 2014/15: 36.4% to 4.3mn tonnes. Pakistan faces an ongoing deficit in sugar production and much of the blame for this can be put down to poor business practices in the sugar milling sector.
?? Poultry production out to 2014/15: 13.6% to 746,000 tonnes. A strong factor boosting production is the promising export potential for halal chicken meat exports out of Pakistan into Muslim countries like Malaysia.
?? 2011 Real GDP Growth: 1.5% (up from 11% y-o-y in 2009; forecast to average 3.2% from 2010 to 2015).
?? Food And Beverage Price Inflation: 20% year-on-year in December 2010 (down from 4% y-oy in 2009).
Industry Developments: As a result of the 2010 floods, rice yields in Pakistan have been extremely affected. From a reasonable yield of 3.67 metric tonnes per hectare (MT/ha), the US Department of Agriculture now estimates that 2010/11 yields will fall 15% to 3.13MT/ha. Given the massive destruction that the floods have wrecked upon the agriculture sector, BMI thinks that it will take at least another two years to regain the average annual 5% growth in yield it had been enjoying in the previous years.
A total of US$1mn in micro-grants to farmers, reaching out to over 100,000 dairy animals will be channelled into the dairy sector over the next six months. The initiative is a collaboration between the US Agency for International Development and Engro Foundational. It will provide health and nutritional supplements such as mineral mixtures, multi-cut grass seeds and oat seeds, as well as fertilizers and vaccinations for foot and mouth disease, to help restore the health and productivity of flood affected livestock.
The government is proposing a new bill to legislate a tax on poultry feed being imported into the country called the Sales Tax Act of RGST Bill 2010. According to the Pakistan Poultry Association, this will increase consumer prices of poultry feed by 15%, not including the proposed increase in fuel, electricity and the additional cost of load shedding, which is traditionally paid by the farmer. Given that feed costs contribute to roughly 70% of overall costs, this increased cost will most likely be passed on to the consumer, according to Mr Khalil Sattar, chairman of the association, who is strongly opposed to the possible new bill.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Pakistan Agriculture SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Pakistan Political SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Pakistan Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................... 10
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 11
Pakistan Rice Outlook.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: Pakistan – Rice Production, Consumption & Trade ............................................................................................................................... 11
Table: Pakistan – Rice Production, Consumption & Trade ............................................................................................................................... 13
Pakistan Livestock Outlook ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Pakistan – Poultry Production & Consumption ....................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Pakistan – Beef & Veal Production & Consumption ............................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Pakistan – Poultry Production & Consumption ...................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Pakistan – Beef & Veal Production & Consumption ............................................................................................................................... 18
Pakistan Dairy Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Pakistan – Milk Production & Consumption ........................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Pakistan – Butter Production & Consumption ........................................................................................................................................ 20
Table: Pakistan – Milk Production & Consumption .......................................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Pakistan – Butter Production & Consumption......................................................................................................................................... 22
Pakistan Sugar Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Pakistan – Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade .............................................................................................................................. 24
PAKISTAN Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade ........................................................................................................................................ 26
Pakistan Grains Outlook - ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
PAKISTAN Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 28
PAKISTAN Corn Production, Consumption & Trade ......................................................................................................................................... 29
PAKISTAN Barley Production, Consumption & Trade....................................................................................................................................... 29
PAKISTAN Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade ................................................................................................................................... 29
PAKISTAN Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 31
PAKISTAN Corn Production, Consumption & Trade ......................................................................................................................................... 31
PAKISTAN Barley Production, Consumption & Trade....................................................................................................................................... 31
PAKISTAN Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade ................................................................................................................................... 32
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 33
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders ....................................................................................................................................... 33
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers ............................................................................................................................................................................ 34
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers........................................................................................................................................................... 35
Commodity Price Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 36
Monthly Softs Update ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Cocoa.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Table: Cocoa ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Coffee.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Table: Coffee ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Milk ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Milk ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Sugar .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 39
Table: Sugar ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Grains Update ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Corn .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Table: Corn ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
Rice ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table: Rice .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Soybean .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
Table: Soybean ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Wheat .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43
Table: Wheat....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis ............................................................................................................ 44
Industry Forecast Scenario ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Consumer Outlook .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
Food......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Food Consumption .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Table: Pakistan Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts .................................................................................................. 48
Canned Food ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Pakistan Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts ........................................................................................... 49
Mass Grocery Retail ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 50
Table: Pakistan MGR Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts ..................................................................................................... 50
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts ............................................................................................................... 51
Trade ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Table: Pakistan Food & Drink Trade Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts ............................................................................................... 52
Macroeconomic Forecast ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 53
Pakistan – Economic Activity ............................................................................................................................................................................. 55
Industry Trend Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 56
Consumer Sector Struggling To Get Into Stride .................................................................................................................................................. 56
Global Food & Drink View ............................................................................................................................. 60
Food & Drink Roundup Q410: Core Views ............................................................................................................................................................. 60
Long-Term Views ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 64
BMI Food & Drink Core Views .......................................................................................................................................................................... 65
BMI Forecast Modelling ................................................................................................................................ 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 66




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