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Moldova Telecommunications Report 2011

Moldova Telecommunications Report 2011

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Additional Information

Price	$530.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Apr 8, 2011

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Quick Overview

BMI’s 2011 report on Moldova’s telecommunications market contains updated and extended forecasts that predict how the country’s fixed-line, internet, broadband and mobile sectors will develop through to the end of 2015. Our new forecasts reflect 2010 data published by Moldova’s telecoms sector regulator, the Agency for Electronic Communications and Information Technology (ANRCETI). The regulator publishes detailed telecoms market data on a quarterly basis. Our forecasts and market analyses also incorporate data published by fixed-line incumbent operator Moldtelecom and by the country’s two leading mobile network operators, specifically Orange Moldova, which is owned by France Telecom and Moldcell, in which both Turkey’s Türkcell and Nordic operator TeliaSonera have controlling stakes.
Notable developments in the Moldovan telecoms market in recent months include the launch of third generation (3G) services by the country’s smallest mobile operator Unite. The firm is owned by Moldtelecom and served about 4.7% of Moldova’s mobile telephony customers at the end of 2010, providing services over its CDMA network. In May 2010 the operator announced the commercial launch of its W-CDMA/HSDPA services under the brand Unite 3G. Moldtelecom’s new 3G offering provides services such as mobile broadband at download speeds of up to 14.4Mbps, along with videocalling and high quality voice services. At launch, the 3G network covered 68% of the population, including all the country’s major cities and regional centres, and many rural regions. The company also plans to increase maximum downlink speeds to 21Mbps and offer TV services.
Based on the available data, BMI estimates Moldova had about 500,000 mobile customers with 3Genabled devices at the end of 2010. This figure, which includes 3G customers served by all three operators, was equivalent to approximately 18% of the total mobile customer base. At the end of 2010 the country had 2.76mn mobile customers, equivalent to a penetration rate of 77.6%. Despite solid growth, Moldova’s mobile penetration rate remains the lowest in the region.
Our broadband subscriber forecast for Moldova has also undergone significant changes to reflect the stronger-than-expected broadband subscriber growth in 2009 and 2010. By the end of 2010 we forecast Moldova had almost 387,000 broadband connections, equivalent to a penetration rate of 10.9%. Although Moldova has about 50 internet service providers (ISPs), the two service providers Moldtelecom and StarNet account for almost 88% of the fixed broadband market. The fixed broadband sector has benefited from the growth of xDSL and optical-fibre (FTTx) connections. It is mainly alternative operator StarNet which has been driving growth in the FTTx segment. However, incumbent operator Moldtelecom also offers services based on optical fibre. Meanwhile, Moldtelecom appears to be primarily responsible for the growth of the xDSL segment. The advancement of IPTV services by Moldtelecom and StarNet will further increase subscriptions based on optical fibre. Moldtelecom launched IPTV in February 2010 while StarNet was understood to be close to commercially launching its IPTV package at the time of writing.
BMI’s broadband subscriber forecasts also include mobile broadband subscriptions. The latter category comprises subscribers who use portable USB devices to access the internet using one of the country’s 3G mobile networks. By the end of 2010 the number of mobile broadband connections had risen to 119,600, up by almost 50% y-o-y. According to the regulator, Orange Moldova accounted for 60% of mobile broadband connections while Moldcell accounted for 34% of the market.
Finally, the latest data from Moldova’s regulator suggests the fixed-line telephony sector continued to grow. In 2010 the number of fixed telephone lines increased by 2% to reach 1.16mn at the end of the year. This was equivalent to a penetration rate of 32.6%. Despite earlier indications that the Moldovan authorities were preparing to privatise the state-owned operator Moldtelecom, there has been no further word on the operator’s sale.
Moldova remains at the bottom of our regional rankings, with scores below average in all categories surveyed by BMI. Since our last report on Moldova, the country’s Industry Rewards and Industry Risks scores both fell slightly.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Moldova Mobile Industry SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................ 7
Moldova Wireline Industry SWOT Analysis .......................................................................................................................................................... 8
Business Environment Analysis .................................................................................................................... 9
Central and Eastern European Markets..................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Rankings ................................................................................................................. 12
Moldova ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 15
Mobile ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts ........................................................................................................................ 15
Fixed Line ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts .................................................................................................................. 17
Internet .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts ...................................................................................................................... 19
Market Data Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 21
Mobile ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Table: Moldova Mobile Subscribers Q409-Q410 (‘000)..................................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Subscriber Net Additions, Q409-Q410 (‘000) .......................................................................................................................................... 23
Mobile Contract Wins ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Table: Mobile Contract Wins .............................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Mobile Content ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 30
Regional Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 30
Country Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33
VAS Timeline ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Table: VAS Timeline ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Mobile Operator Data ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 35
Table: Moldova Mobile Market Overview .......................................................................................................................................................... 35
Table: Moldcell ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Table: Orange Moldova ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Fixed-Line ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 37
Internet .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Regulatory Environment............................................................................................................................... 45
Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Table: Moldova: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities .......................................................................................................................... 45
Legislation ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Licensing .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Interconnection ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 48
Industry Developments................................................................................................................................. 50
New Authorisation Regime Approved ...................................................................................................................................................................... 50
Mobile Number Portability in 2012 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 50
Regulator to Licence MVNOs .................................................................................................................................................................................. 50
Regulator to Approve First Draft Decisions on SMP Providers'.............................................................................................................................. 51
Eventis Telecom fails to Attract Bidders .................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Moldtelecom calls for Termination Rate Reduction ................................................................................................................................................. 52
117 Complaints against Operators in 2010 ............................................................................................................................................................. 52
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 53
Competitor Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 53
Table: Key Players: Moldova Telecoms Sector .................................................................................................................................................. 53
Table: Operator Revenues, 2007-2010 (US$mn) ................................................................................................................................................ 53
Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................................... 54
Company Brief – Huawei ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Table: Huawei Technologies: CEE & CIS Contracts Awarded ........................................................................................................................... 56
Much Too Much, Much Too Young? ................................................................................................................................................................... 57
Can There Be Smoke Without Fire? .................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Selected Profiles: Operators .................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Moldtelecom ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Moldcell .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 64
Orange Moldova ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 66
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ............................................................................... 68
Fixed Line ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 68
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 69
Broadband ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 70
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 71
Mobile ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 72
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 73
Glossary Of Terms ........................................................................................................................................ 74
Table: Glossary Of Terms ................................................................................................................................................................................... 74
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 75
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 75
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .................................................................................................................... 75
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................. 77
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..................................................................................................................................................................... 77
Table: Ratings Indicators ................................................................................................................................................................................... 78
Weighting ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .......................................................................................................................................................................... 79
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 79