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Mexico Tourism Report Q2 2011

Mexico Tourism Report Q2 2011

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Additional Information

Price	$530.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Apr 15, 2011

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Quick Overview

Tourism Industry Returns To Growth In 2010 Data released by Secretaría de Turismo (the Ministry of Tourism, Sectur) in early 2011 showed that tourist arrivals had returned to growth in full-year 2010. International tourist arrivals totalled 22.40mn, representing growth of 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). This is an encouraging sign for the industry, after arrivals fell by 4.9% y-o-y in 2009. This may indicate that the sector is tentatively returning to a growth trend, albeit below the levels of growth seen before the global economic slowdown of 2008-2009.
Still more encouraging is the fact that tourist revenues have returned to growth, rising by 6.8% y-o-y to total US$15.5bn. As this is above the growth rate for arrivals, it augurs well for higher spending in 2011. Border tourism remains low, perhaps reflecting the surging murder rates in Mexico’s border regions with the US. Border tourists (defined as those who cross the US-Mexico border only briefly) actually declined in 2010, falling from 9.67mn in 2009 to 9.62mn in 2010. That said, tourism into parts of Mexico less affected by drug-related crime remains strong, indicating that foreign tourists have not been deterred by the rising crime rates.
Focus On Oaxaca The southern state of Oaxaca is becoming an increasingly popular site for tourism. Oaxaca has traditionally been more of a backpacker’s location than a tourist or package holiday destination. It boasts a number of hostels and hotels but high-end and luxury hotels are only just appearing in the state. Oaxaca is looking to promote itself as a site for more conventional tourism, with a twist. Local companies offer a variety of ecological and cultural, with some offering the opportunity to stay in indigenous communities. Although tourism looks set to remain less important in Oaxaca than in other states, such as neighbouring Guerrero, it is continuing to position itself as a niche market providing an alternative to coastal-based tourism.
President Launches Strategy To Boost Tourism As Mexico slowly begins to recover from the 2008-2009 economic slowdown, the government is keen to ensure that this translates into sustainable industry growth. In January 2011, President Felipe Calderón announced that Mexico is aiming to be one of the world’s top five tourist destinations by 2018. As part of the strategy to meet this goal, in February he launched a National Tourism Agreement, which will focus on 10 main areas for industry growth. These include cultural heritage, training, certification, infrastructure and sustainability. To launch the new project, Calderón declared 2011 to be Mexico’s ‘Year of Tourism’.

Table of Contents

SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Mexico Tourism SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Mexico Political SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Mexico Economic SWOT .............................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Mexico Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Industry Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................................................. 8
Arrivals .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 ........................................................................................................................................................... 10
Expenditure ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015 ........................................................................................................................... 11
Focus: Oaxaca ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Inbound Tourism .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 12
Table: Arrival Of Tourists At National Borders, 2007-2015 ............................................................................................................................... 12
Outbound Tourism ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless stated) ....................................................................................................................... 13
Market Overview – Travel .............................................................................................................................. 14
Commercial Airlines ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Low-Cost Airlines ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Cruises ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ............................................................................................................... 18
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)........................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) ................................................................................................................. 21
H1N1 Update .................................................................................................................................................. 23
Market Overview – Hospitality ...................................................................................................................... 24
Accommodation ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Business Environment Outlook .................................................................................................................... 27
Latin America Tourism Business Environment Ratings ........................................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Latin America Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings.......................................................................................................... 27
BMI’s Security Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Table: Latin America Security Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................... 28
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings......................................................................................................................... 28
Mexico’s Security Risk Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................................ 29
City Terrorism Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index ........................................................................................................................................................ 32
Latin America Security Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................ 33
Global Assumptions, Q211........................................................................................................................... 39
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 39
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ...................................................................................................................... 40
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ...................................................................................................................................... 41
Developed States .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ................................................................................................................ 42
Emerging Markets ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 43
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .............................................................................................................. 44
Consensus Forecasts ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 45
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 ..................................................................................................................................................... 45
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 46
Mexicana de Aviación ................................................................................................................................................................................. 46
Aeroméxico ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 48
Grupo Posadas ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Sol Meliá ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 50
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 51
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 51
Tourism Industry ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Tourism Ratings – Methodology ......................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators .............................................................................................................................................. 53
Table: Weighting Of Components ....................................................................................................................................................................... 54
City Terrorism Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 56
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 56