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Libya Defence and Security Report Q3 2011

Libya Defence and Security Report Q3 2011

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Meta Description At the time of writing (late April 2011), the civil war in Libya continues. Colonel Muammar Qadhafi still holds some key
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report May 27, 2011
Quick Overview
At the time of writing (late April 2011), the civil war in Libya continues. Colonel Muammar Qadhafi still holds some key population centres, although it appears that he cannot recover the territory he had controlled since 1969. With Western support providing protection for Libyan rebels and civilians, Qadhafi retains his grip on the nation’s capital city and on government services. As the country is currently in turmoil, the direction it will take is highly uncertain. Qadhafi’s supporters could retain control of the oil-rich state, or the pro-democratic forces might overthrow the regime, perhaps accompanied by insurgency from Qadhafi loyalists. There have also been suggestions that the country could divide, with Benghazi forming the capital of a new nation of Cyrenaica.
Colonel Muammar Qadhafi continues to fight for control of his country and gives no indication of doing otherwise in the months to come. If Qadhafi does leave the country or cede control, the rebel National Transitional Council is likely to receive some international support in stabilising Libya. Given the history of other countries which have experienced a similar release from long term authoritarian rule, a chaotic period often ensues during which a country is very vulnerable to security lapses and previously subdued internal conflicts. Investors will be viewing Libya with caution until it recovers from its present upheaval. Middle Eastern and North African regional security is directly affected by events in Libya. Libya is protecting oil production assets which are a key resource within the country. Neighbouring countries are participating in humanitarian activities, rescuing and receiving refugees from Libya. The potential for a continuing flow of refugees is likely to put a strain on regional relations. The possibility of Islamist militants taking advantage of the current chaos is also a major concern. Furthermore, an extended civil war within Libya is a realistic possibility.
The formation of the National Transitional Council in Libya has provided the prospect of strategic and administrative stability for a post-Qadhafi nation, but rebel forces lack the organisation and equipment to overthrow Qadhafi in Tripoli. With Libya still facing a volatile present and highly uncertain future, any analysis of its security situation, economic performance, and defence procurement will have relevance in a very temporary context and will be subject to regular revision. Qadhafi shows no desire to back down and seems able to resist displacement for some time to come. His military is well trained and loyal and the number of defections from his rule has wound almost to a halt. Furthermore, even if Qadhafi is removed, there is a risk that civil war would continue.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Libya Security SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 6
Libya Defence Industry SWOT .............................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Global Political Outlook .................................................................................................................................. 7
Japan After The Quake ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea ............................................................................................................................................... 9
Wild Cards To Watch .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Middle East Security Overview ..................................................................................................................... 15
Political Risk Analysis - The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s ........................................................................................................................... 15
The Middle East In A Global Context ................................................................................................................................................................. 15
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security.............................................................................................................................................. 15
Regional Power Dynamics .................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Nuclear Proliferation .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
External Powers.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28
Scenarios For The Middle East........................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Security Risk Analysis .................................................................................................................................. 31
BMI’s Security Ratings ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings ............................................................................................................................ 31
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .................................................................................................... 32
Libya’s Security Risk Rating ............................................................................................................................................................................... 32
City Terrorism Rating ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Table: BMI’s Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index ..................................................................................................................... 34
Domestic Security Overview ......................................................................................................................... 36
Armed Forces And Government Spending ................................................................................................. 40
Armed Forces ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Equipment ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
International Deployments .................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Table: International Deployments ...................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Weapons Of Mass Destruction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 41
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 44
Industry Trends And Developments .................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Latest Developments ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Procurement Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................................................................. 47
Forecast Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 49
Armed Forces ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Libya’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) .......................................................................................... 49
Table: Libya’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) .................................................. 50
Defence Expenditure ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 50
Table: Libya’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 ............................................................................................................................ 51
Table: Libya’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) ............................................................................. 51
Libya Defence & Security Report Q3 2011
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Defence Trade ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Table: Libya - Economic Activity, 2008-2015 ..................................................................................................................................................... 53
Country Snapshot: Libya Demographic Data.............................................................................................. 54
Section 1: Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 54
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 55
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ................................................................................................................................................................. 55
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 55
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 56
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 56
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 57
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 57
Defence Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
City Terrorism Rating ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Table: Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 60
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 61




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