Sign in to our library of over $5 million worth of researchclose

Two Quick Steps

* Required Fields

Click Your Industry



Registered Customers

If you have an account with us, please log in.

* Required Fields



Subscribe today
Sign in to our library of over $5 million worth of researchclose

Two Quick Steps

* Required Fields

Click Your Industry



Registered Customers

If you have an account with us, please log in.

* Required Fields



Subscribe today

We deliver Mobile Wallet Market Research and SWOT Analysis from Alternative Energy to Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Market Research Reports to Digital Media.

Skip to Main Content »

Search Site
Researchers Currently Online:1428

Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence and Security Report Q1 2011


Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence and Security Report Q1 2011

Double click on above image to view full picture

Zoom Out
Zoom In
Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Aug 1, 2011
Quick Overview
Kazakhstan’s prospects for future political liberalisation have weakened. On June 15 2010, parliament extended President Nazarbayev’s authoritarian powers, granting him life rule and immunity from prosecution. As Nazarbayev is 70 years old, the new powers could serve to kick-start a potential transfer of power to a chosen successor.
Kazakhstan's economic recovery continues to defy market expectations. However, despite its stellar 8.0% expansion in H110, we still expect economic growth to moderate over the coming quarters – given the slowing pace of oil price gains, limited scope for credit expansion within the financial sector, and our expectations for a slowdown in global growth over the medium term. That said, the government's strategy to diversify the oil-dependent economy over the coming years bodes well for longer-term growth. Kyrgyzstan continues on its shaky road to democracy. The elections on October 10 resulted in no majority winner, so a coalition government will be formed, after negotiations between the five main parties – with nationalists holding the most seats. The fact that the landmark Kyrgyz elections were not accompanied by major instances of violence is a major positive. It bodes well for the country's ongoing recovery from the riots in June, where violence in the South, aimed at ethnic Uzbeks, resulted in hundreds of deaths.
Kyrgyzstan’s recent political crisis and ethnic conflict that interrupted the second quarter of 2010 has taken, and will continue to take, its toll on economic activity. In Tajikistan, real GDP expanded by 6.2% y-o-y in May. The economic recovery remains firmly on track, and in our view, will enjoy a strong bounce in growth this year. Turkmenistan's strategy of diversifying its export routes remains in full swing. As the fifth largest gas exporter in the world, and possessing the world’s fourth largest gas reserves, energy dominates its economy. Uzbekistan's economic prospects will remain robust in 2010-11.
In September, more than 3,000 Kazakh, Russian and Chinese troops took part in joint military exercises as part of ‘Peace Mission 2010’. This was organised by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a six-nation group comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Russia and China. The SCO is focussed on terrorism and drug trafficking in the region. (Source: China Global Times, September 14 2010)
Strategically, the Central Asian states are of ever-increasing importance to the major world powers of Russia, China and the US. The location – neighbouring Russia and China, Iran and Afghanistan – is of major importance in this era.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 7
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 8
Central Asia Security SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Central Asia Political SWOT .............................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Global Political Outlook ................................................................................................................................ 11
Global Hotspots .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12
Table: Global Election Timetable, 2010 And 2011 ............................................................................................................................................. 13
Latin America: More Of The Same ..................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Western Europe .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
Central Europe ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
South Eastern Europe ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Russia And The Former Soviet Union ................................................................................................................................................................. 23
Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges .................................................................................................................................................. 24
Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending ............................................................................................................................................. 26
Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China .................................................................................................................................................. 27
Wild Cards .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Global Security Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 31
Security Risk Ratings ................................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ....................................................................................................................... 38
Central Asia Conflict Risk Rating ....................................................................................................................................................................... 39
City Terrorism Ratings ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index ........................................................................................... 40
Central Asia Political Overview .................................................................................................................... 42
Kazakhstan ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Kyrgyzstan .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Tajikistan ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 44
Turkmenistan ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Uzbekistan .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Central Asia Regional Security ..................................................................................................................... 48
The Geopolitical Importance Of Central Asia .................................................................................................................................................... 48
Challenges And Threats To Central Asia’s Stability ........................................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Eurasian Organisations ........................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Table: Central Asia Trade Patterns, 2007 .......................................................................................................................................................... 62
Recent Developments .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Islamist Extremism And Transnational Threats .................................................................................................................................................. 64
Table: Central Asia Insurgent Groups ................................................................................................................................................................ 64
Internal Instability .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 68
Inter-Regional Competition And Cooperation .................................................................................................................................................... 69
Regional Organisations ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 69
Land Borders ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 70
Water .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 70
Natural Resources .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 71
Regional Military Relations With Russia, China And The US .............................................................................................................................. 71
The US Presence ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 72
Operation Enduring Freedom ............................................................................................................................................................................. 72
Russia And China In Central Asia ...................................................................................................................................................................... 73
Armed Forces And Government Spending ................................................................................................. 75
Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces ............................................................................................................................................................................... 75
Kyrgyzstan’s Armed Forces ................................................................................................................................................................................ 76
Tajikistan’s Armed Forces .................................................................................................................................................................................. 77
Turkmenistan’s Armed Forces ............................................................................................................................................................................ 78
Uzbekistan’s Armed Forces ................................................................................................................................................................................ 79
International Deployments .................................................................................................................................................................................. 79
Table: Central Asia Foreign Developments ........................................................................................................................................................ 79
Weapons Of Mass Destruction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 79
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 81
Arms Trade Overview ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 82
Procurement Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................................................................. 83
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 84
Kazakhstan ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 84
Table: Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) ................................................................................. 84
Table: Kazakhstan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 ...................................................................................................................................... 85
Kyrgyzstan .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 86
Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) ................................................................................. 86
Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 ....................................................................................................................................... 86
Tajikistan ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 87
Table: Tajikistan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) ................................................................................... 87
Table: Tajikistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008 – 2015 ...................................................................................................................................... 87
Turkmenistan ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 88
Table: Turkmenistan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) ............................................................................. 88
Table: Turkmenistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008 - 2015 ................................................................................................................................. 88
Uzbekistan .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 89
Table: Uzbekistan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) ................................................................................. 89
Table: Uzbekistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008 - 2015 ..................................................................................................................................... 89
Macroeconomic Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 90
Kazakhstan ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 90
Table: Kazakhstan – Economic Activity, 2007-2014 ........................................................................................................................................... 91
Kyrgyzstan’s Macroeconomic Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................... 92
Table: Kyrgyzstan – Economic Activity, 2007-2014 ........................................................................................................................................... 93
Tajikistan’s Macroeconomic Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................. 93
Table: Tajikistan - Economic Activity, 2007-2014 .............................................................................................................................................. 94
Turkmenistan’s Macroeconomic Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................... 95
Table: Turkmenistan – Economic Activity, 2007-2014 ....................................................................................................................................... 96
Uzbekistan’s Macroeconomic Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................... 96
Table: Uzbekistan – Economic Activity, 2007-2014 ............................................................................................................................................ 98
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 99
Chkalov Tashkent Industrial Aircraft Association (TAPiCH) .............................................................................................................................. 99
GE International Operations .............................................................................................................................................................................101
BMI Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 102
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ........................................................................................................................................................102
Defence Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................102
City Terrorism Rating ........................................................................................................................................................................................103
Table: Methodology ...........................................................................................................................................................................................105
Sources ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................106




...