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Jordan Defence and Security Report 2013

Jordan Defence and Security Report 2013

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Additional Information

Price	$1,175.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	May 12, 2012

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Quick Overview

Jordan's defence expenditure is set to grow, despite austerity measures. In the increasingly volatile region
where Jordan has begun to face an active threat from the civil war in Syria, the government is committed
to increasing its defence budget. A total of JOD1.1bn (US$1.6bn) spent on defence in 2012, and by 2017
BMI expects this to rise to JOD1.87bn (US$2.43bn). The Jordanians are particularly concerned with
modernising their military, something that offers expanded opportunity for the US and UK defence firms
which traditionally provide much of the country's advanced weaponry.
The political situation in Jordan has continued to deteriorate, prompting the King to call for early
elections on October 5 2012, though a date for the elections themselves was not fixed. Mass protests took
place after the announcement, with protesters demanding reform of the regime while still disavowing a
popular uprising. The new electoral law being protested failed to enshrine a key demand of the protestors,
who have called for the prime minister to be appointed by parliament and not by the king. The elections
are set to be boycott by Islamists and leftists, while voter registration drives have proved harder than the
government had hoped. The new elections come as the country faces increased political instability and the
appointment of the third Prime Minister since the beginning of 2012.
Jordanian intelligence foiled a major terrorist plot in October 2012, according to reports from CNN.
Eleven suspected terrorists were arrested by security forces, having allegedly planned to attack a range of
targets within the country. The targets included foreign nationals and diplomats as well as shopping
centres and residential areas. It is understood that all those arrested are Jordanian citizens and that the
eleven men have recently travelled to and from Syria regularly. The explosives and weapons for the
attacks were to be sourced from Syria, highlighting the impact that the civil war on the country is having
on neighbouring states.
In October 2012 the Jordanian military received a small US force to help deal with the fallout from the
Syrian civil war. The soldiers will be setting up a headquarters near the border in order to provide a range
of as-yet-unknown assistance to the Jordanian military. It is understood, according to reports from The
Guardian, that the soldiers are focused on helping Jordan develop contingency plans to secure the
chemical and biological weapons currently in the possession of the Syrian government. Jordan has been
planning special forces missions to secure the weapons in the event of government collapse for some
time, but has been undoubtedly aided by this US assistance. The move was announced by the US
Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, though the Jordanians have denied the move saying that the Jordanian
military is more than capable of defending Jordan from all threats.
The King Abdullah II Design & Development Bureau (KADDB) has formed a new joint venture with
a Turkish defence firm Aselsan. The new firm, 'ASELSAN Middle East Company', will produce night
vision and thermal-imaging equipment. Aselsan is a major Turkish electronics manufacturer. The JV will
be 51%-owned by KADDB. Initially the company will manufacture single lens night-vision equipment
and thermal-imaging equipment for vehicles. The production will take place in Jordan and may
potentially expand to include other products.
The Royal Jordanian Air Force will be receiving a new air control system from Lockheed Martin. The
company was chosen by the Jordanians and the US Air Force to provide the next generation system for
the Jordanians. The FMS contract will allow the Jordanian military an integrated, real-time view of the
country's airspace and air assets, using information from multiple command centres. The system to be
installed is known an 'Omnyx'. The system collates data from existing radar infrastructure. The system is
also intended to improve cooperation between the Air Force and other branches of the military. Lockheed
Martin is being paid US$26mn under the terms of the contract.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Jordan Security SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Jordan Defence Industry SWOT............................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Jordan Political SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Jordan Economic SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Jordan Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Global Political Outlook ................................................................................................................................ 11
Middle East Security Overview ..................................................................................................................... 14
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s ...................................................................................................................................................................... 14
The Middle East In A Global Context ................................................................................................................................................................. 14
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security.............................................................................................................................................. 15
Regional Power Dynamics .................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Nuclear Proliferation .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
External Powers.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28
Scenarios For The Middle East........................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Scenario Three: Political Liberalisation Takes Hold .......................................................................................................................................... 31
Security Risk Ratings ................................................................................................................................... 32
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings ............................................................................................................................... 32
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .............................................................................................................. 33
Jordan's Security Risk Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................ 33
Political Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 35
Domestic Politics I ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
More Of The Same, For Now .............................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Domestic Politics II ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Prime Minister Set To Resign? ........................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Long-Term Political Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Long-Term Political Outlook – Further Reforms On The Horizon? .................................................................................................................... 40
Jordan Security Overview ............................................................................................................................. 43
Internal Security Situation ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Terrorism ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 46
Ongoing Threats ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 48
Southern Dissent ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 49
Latest Developments ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Regional External Security Situation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 51
International ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 52
Latest Developments ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Armed Forces And Government Spending ................................................................................................. 56
Armed Forces ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Defence Equipment ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
International Deployments .................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Table: Jordan's Foreign Deployments ................................................................................................................................................................ 58
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 59
Arms Trade Overview ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Industry Trends And Developments .................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Procurement Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................................................................. 65
Latest Developments ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 66
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 68
Armed Forces .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68
Table: Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) ....................................................................................................... 68
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) ................................................................. 68
Defence Expenditure ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 68
Table: Jordan's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 .............................................................................................................................................. 69
Table: Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 ....................................................................................................................... 70
Defence Trade .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario .................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Macroeconomic Forecast ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 71
Slowdown Ahead ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 71
Table: Jordan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 .................................................................................................................................................. 74
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 75
Indigenous Manufacturers ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
King Abdullah II Design and Development Bureau (KADDB) ............................................................................................................................ 75
Joint Ventures .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 77
Jordan Light Vehicle Manufacturing (JLVM) ..................................................................................................................................................... 77
Foreign Manufacturers ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 78
Raytheon Technical Services Company (RTSC) .................................................................................................................................................. 78
RUAG Land Systems ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 79
General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) .......................................................................................................................................................... 80
United Defense ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 80
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 81
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 81
Defence Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 81
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 82