Sign in to our library of over $5 million worth of researchclose

Two Quick Steps

* Required Fields

Click Your Industry



Registered Customers

If you have an account with us, please log in.

* Required Fields



Subscribe today
Sign in to our library of over $5 million worth of researchclose

Two Quick Steps

* Required Fields

Click Your Industry



Registered Customers

If you have an account with us, please log in.

* Required Fields



Subscribe today

We deliver Mobile Wallet Market Research and SWOT Analysis from Alternative Energy to Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Market Research Reports to Digital Media.

Skip to Main Content »

Search Site
Researchers Currently Online:851

Japan Metals Report Q2 2011


Japan Metals Report Q2 2011

Double click on above image to view full picture

Zoom Out
Zoom In
Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Apr 8, 2011
Quick Overview
After a generally positive 2010 when production and consumption levels rebounded strongly following the global recession, we expect a return to modest historical growth rates as few expansion plans have been announced. Indeed, Japan's demand and supply of steel, aluminium, copper and nickel reflect the broader Japanese economy. The country remains one of the largest producers and consumers of these metals but faces a declining share of world output and demand as China and, to a lesser extent, India, rapidly increase production and consumption in most metals.
We expect steel production to rebound, primarily due to base effects from the global downturn. Moreover, while domestic demand has seen a relatively sluggish recovery, output growth has been driven by exports to Korea and China. However, producer margins are likely to remain tight as iron ore and coal prices continue to rise, only some of which can be passed onto the consumer. We expect a continuation of the long-term decline in aluminium production, with output falling by an annual average of 2.3% per year to 4.20 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2015, from 4.61kt in 2010. We expect secondary aluminium, which accounts for the vast majority of the country's refined aluminium output, to grow at an average rate of 5.9%, reaching 1.15mn tonnes (mnt) by 2015, from 870kt in 2010. Consumption growth will be more modest, growing by an average annual rate of 3.1% and reaching 2.45mnt in 2015, up from 2.10mnt in 2010.
Copper production will also show modest growth, averaging 3.5% per annum, reaching 1.88mnt in 2015, up from 1.58mnt in 2010. Again, demand will grow more slowly, at an average annual rate of 1.8% per annum, reaching 1.2mntpa in 2015 from 1.08mntpa in 2010. Finally, we forecast nickel production to reach 217kt in 2015, marking an average annual rate of growth of 5.8% from 164kt in 2010, with Sumitomo Metal Mining leading growth with plans to increase output at its Niihama refinery, the country's largest, from 41 to 63ktpa in 2013. In addition, we forecast consumption growth to average 2.8% per annum from 204kt in 2010 to 178kt in 2015.
Overall, we expect production of refined metals to outpace growth in demand, leading to an output surplus over the coming years. Indeed, we expect Japan to become a net nickel exporter by 2013, whereas the country has been reliant on imports for the past decade. We therefore expect Japan's exports of refined metals to increase, with the primary export market being China - a market which we forecast will remain reliant on imported metals, at least in the short to medium term.
Our forecasts are based on the premise that the Japanese economy will slowly recover from recession and continue its pre-crisis trend of slow growth. Therefore there are downside risks to our forecasts depending on the performance of the wider economy. Indeed, if the country shows signs of a protracted recovery slower than expected we will revise down our forecasts.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Japan Political SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Japan Economic SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Japan Business Environment SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Global Market Overview.................................................................................................................................. 9
Commodities Forecast - Steel To Average US$580/tonne In 2011 ......................................................................................................................... 9
Table: BMI Steel Forecast .................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Table: Steel Prices .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Asia Regional Overview................................................................................................................................ 15
Table: Top 10 Asian Steel Producers, 2009 ........................................................................................................................................................ 15
Industry Forecast .......................................................................................................................................... 19
Steel: Exports Buoy Sector, But Margins Weigh On Profitability ........................................................................................................................ 19
Nickel: Japan To Become A Net Exporter in 2013 .............................................................................................................................................. 21
Table: Output By Refinery .................................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Table: Production & Consumption Forecasts..................................................................................................................................................... 22
Copper: Slow Growth In Demand & Supply ....................................................................................................................................................... 23
Table: Refined Copper Production ..................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Refined Copper Demand.......................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Aluminium: Consumption To Grow By 11% to 2015 .......................................................................................................................................... 25
Table: Primary & Secondary Production ........................................................................................................................................................... 25
Table: Refined Aluminium Production ................................................................................................................................................................ 26
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Japan - Economic Activity, 2008-2015 .................................................................................................................................................... 28
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 29
Steel .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Table: Top Japanese Steel Producers, Worldwide Capacity, 2008 ...................................................................................................................... 29
Sector Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Production And domestic sales ........................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Japan Iron and Steel Production ('000 metric tonnes) ........................................................................................................................................ 31
Steel Product Output, Jan-Jul 2010 .................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Japan Crude Steel Production ('000 tonnes) -- By Process ................................................................................................................................ 33
Japan Steel Production ('000 tonnes) -- By Category ......................................................................................................................................... 33
Japan Steel Production ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................................................................................. 33
Table: Japan – Steel Production By Products ('000 tonnes) ............................................................................................................................... 34
Trade .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Table: Japan Exports, Jan-Jul 2010 ................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Foreign Ventures ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 37
Latest developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 38
Financial Results ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
Table: Output At Sumitomo Steel Works In Japan, 2007 ('000 tonnes) ................................................................................................................ 41
Table: Crude Steel Production At NSC Steel Works In Japan, 2008 ('000 tonnes) .............................................................................................. 41
Table: Crude Steel Production Capacity At JFE Steel Works In Japan ('000 tonnes) ......................................................................................... 42
Aluminium........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Japan Production Of Aluminium And Fabricated Products, Q208-Q409 ('000 tonnes) ........................................................................... 42
Table: Production of Aluminium and its Fabricated Products 2009 ('000 tonnes) .............................................................................................. 43
Table: Aluminium Imports and Exports, 2009 ('000 tonnes) ............................................................................................................................... 43
Table: Japan Demand of Aluminium End-Uses, 2009 ('000 tonnes) .................................................................................................................... 44
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 46
Nippon Steel Corporation ................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Sumitomo Metal Industries ................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Global Assumptions Q1 2011 ....................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 49
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ...................................................................................................................... 50
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ...................................................................................................................................... 50
Developed States ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ................................................................................................................ 51
Emerging Markets .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 52
Table: Emerging Market’s GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .............................................................................................................. 53
Consensus Forecasts........................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 ..................................................................................................................................................... 54
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 55
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data............................................................................................. 56
Section 1: Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 56
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 57
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 57
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 58
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......................................................................................................................................................... 58
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 58
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 ......................................................................................................................................................... 59




...