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Japan Freight Transport Report Q2 2011


Japan Freight Transport Report Q2 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Apr 15, 2011
Quick Overview
Japan was hit by a devastating 8.9 magnitude earthquake in Q111, which left thousands dead and shattered the country's infrastructure. There will be severe disruption to economic activity as a result, though at this stage the full impact is difficult to estimate. Importantly, BMI believes that recession risks have returned to the fore, just when it looked like export growth would boost overall GDP in 2011 following a 1.2% annualised contraction in Q410. While Tohoku, the epicentre, is not a major economic centre, it still accounts for 8% of GDP and has numerous factories.
Meanwhile, power outages and supply chain concerns mean that major exporting companies such as Sony and Toyota have halted operations indefinitely. Assuming that net exports place a sizeable drag on headline growth as exports cool and capital imports surge (as following the Hanshin earthquake in 1995), Japan may continue to suffer negative sequential growth in H111.
We believe the ports worst-hit by the tsunami which followed the quake, those on the country's north-east coast, will be out of action for some months, causing liquid-bulk shipments to be rerouted and raising the possibility of congestion at those ports that remain operational. Although major Japanese lines have seen stock prices badly hit, we see upside potential over the longer term for the country's shipping sector as raw materials are imported to support reconstruction and power plants and steel makers rebuild inventories.
Headline Industry Data ?? Port of Chiba 2011 tonnage throughput forecast to grow +0.81%, with average annual year-onyear (y-o-y) growth of 1.12% during our forecast period.
?? Port of Nagoya 2011 tonnage throughput forecast to grow +3.11%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 4.67% during our forecast period.
?? Air freight tonnes 2011 forecast to grow +1.5%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 2.3% during our forecast period.
?? Road freight tonnes 2011 forecast to grow +0.5%, with average annual growth of 0.4% during our forecast period.
?? Rail freight tonnes 2011 forecast to grow +0.21%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 0.33% during our forecast period.
Key Trends And Developments Maritime
Earthquake Devastates Japanese Port Sector In March 2011, a major earthquake closed ports across the country. Ports in Tokyo and south of the capital were quickly operational again after being closed in the wake of the earthquake. However, the brief closure of the country's main ports cost Japan an estimated US$3.4bn in lost seaborne trade each day, according to Lloyd's List. Ports in the northeast of the country were worst hit, with the ports of Hachinohe, Sendai, Ishinomaki, Kashima and Onahama all suffering severe damage. BMI believes those ports that have been badly hit will be out of operation for several months, if not longer. We believe this will lead to delays in liquid bulk shipping and congestion at those ports which remain opened.
Air Freight Nippon Express Profits Slump While All Nippon Airways Stages Recovery Japanese freight forwarder Nippon Express' net profit fell by 21.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to US$123.2mn in the first nine months of the 2010 fiscal year, largely on the back of extraordinary losses over the period. Extraordinary losses totalled US$210.2mn over April-December 2010, including US$91.5mn for asset retirement obligations, US$72mn from the valuation of investment securities and US$41.8mn from fixed asset disposals. Group revenues edged up by 3.9% y-o-y to US$14.8bn. Tokyo-based All Nippon Airways (ANA) generated US$457.3mn over the first nine months of the 2010 fiscal year, turning around a US$428.1mn loss in the previous year.
Risks To Outlook In the short term, the recent earthquake which devastated the country presents considerable downside risk to our forecasts, as the country's infrastructure has been shattered.
Over the medium term, however, we believe this risk could turn positive. Reconstruction efforts will see the country importing and transporting massive amounts of raw materials, ensuring plenty of cargo for freight carriers. Power plants and steel makers restocking should also ensuring that there is plenty of cargo to go around.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Japan Freight Transport Industry SWOT.............................................................................................................................................................. 7
Japan Political SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Japan Economic SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Japan Business Environment SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Market Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 9
Air ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Road ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Rail ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Maritime ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Industry Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................ 11
Air Freight .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ............................................................................................................... 13
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)........................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) ................................................................................................................. 16
Industry Forecast .......................................................................................................................................... 18
Air ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 18
Rail ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2015 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Road ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2015 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Maritime ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19
Table: Maritime Freight – Throughput, 2008-2015 (‘000 tonnes ........................................................................................................................ 20
Trade Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015 .................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) ............................................................................................................. 21
Table: Japan’s Main Import Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn) ............................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Japan’s Main Export Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn) ............................................................................................................................... 22
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 23
Central Japan Railway (JR Tokai) ...................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Japan Airlines Corporation (JAL) ...................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK) .............................................................................................................................................................. 26
Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data............................................................................................. 30
Section 1: Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 30
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 31
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 32
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......................................................................................................................................................... 32
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 32
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 ......................................................................................................................................................... 33
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 34
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 34
Transport Industry .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Sources .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35




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