Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Italy Political SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Italy Economic SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Global Market Overview.................................................................................................................................. 7
Steel To Average US$580/Tonne In 2011 ............................................................................................................................................................. 7
Table: BMI’s Steel Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Table: Steel Prices (US$m/t) ................................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Commodities Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 13
Metals Update .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Aluminium........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Copper ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Lead .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Nickel .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Tin....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Zinc ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Gold .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Regional Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 20
Forecast Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Italy’s Metals Industry, Historical Data and Forecast (‘000 tonnes unless stated) 2007-2015 ................................................................ 27
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Table: Italy – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 ...................................................................................................................................................... 31
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 32
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 34
Sapa Profili ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Alcoa ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Global Assumptions Q211............................................................................................................................ 36
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 36
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ...................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ...................................................................................................................................... 37
Developed States ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ................................................................................................................ 38
Emerging Markets .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 39
Table: Emerging Market’s GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .............................................................................................................. 40
Consensus Forecasts........................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 ..................................................................................................................................................... 41
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 42
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 42
Petrochemicals Industry ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Country Snapshot: Italy Demographic Data ................................................................................................ 44
Section 1: Population ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 44
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 45
Section 2: Education and Healthcare ...................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power ....................................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......................................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 ................................................................................................................................ 47
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Italy Political SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Italy Economic SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Global Market Overview.................................................................................................................................. 7
Steel To Average US$580/Tonne In 2011 ............................................................................................................................................................. 7
Table: BMI’s Steel Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Table: Steel Prices (US$m/t) ................................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Commodities Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 13
Metals Update .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Aluminium........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Copper ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Lead .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Nickel .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Tin....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Zinc ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Gold .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Regional Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 20
Forecast Scenario ......................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Italy’s Metals Industry, Historical Data and Forecast (‘000 tonnes unless stated) 2007-2015 ................................................................ 27
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Table: Italy – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 ...................................................................................................................................................... 31
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 32
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 34
Sapa Profili ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Alcoa ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Global Assumptions Q211............................................................................................................................ 36
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 36
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ...................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ...................................................................................................................................... 37
Developed States ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ................................................................................................................ 38
Emerging Markets .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 39
Table: Emerging Market’s GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .............................................................................................................. 40
Consensus Forecasts........................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 ..................................................................................................................................................... 41
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 42
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 42
Petrochemicals Industry ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Country Snapshot: Italy Demographic Data ................................................................................................ 44
Section 1: Population ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 44
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 45
Section 2: Education and Healthcare ...................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power ....................................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......................................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 ................................................................................................................................ 47
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