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Iran Autos Report Q1 2011


Iran Autos Report Q1 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Aug 1, 2011
Quick Overview
The Iranian auto industry has continued to expand dramatically into Q111. Production, sales and exports have all continued their upward trend through the period, whilst the troubles faced by Iranian automakers themselves have continued. Iran Khodro Company (IKCO) and Saipa both continue to face cashflow problems – though Saipa's privatisation process may see new funds being provided. However, the essential problem remains that automakers in Iran still operate in a fundamentally inefficient way due to state policy and protection. The Iranian auto market itself, though, is particularly buoyant and firms can expect to perform well in this increasingly large market for vehicles.
Total Iranian car production hit 882,396 units in the six months following the beginning of the Iranian year on March 21. This H110 figure is 18% higher than the H109 figure. Furthermore, passenger car production has increased 19.9% to 750,961 units in H110. The Iranian car industry is going through a period of dramatic expansion and recovery, as it begins to exceed even pre-crisis peak levels of production. BMI expects this trend to continue as the Iranian economy, despite facing many problems, has been relatively well insulated from the collapse in global demand which followed the global financial crisis. Furthermore, its export plans may benefit from these worries as the relatively low cost of Iranian produced vehicles becomes an even greater selling point in today's market.
The auto firm Saipa has issued 170mn shares on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The issue, on November 15 2010, follows a larger share issue which occurred on October 3, which saw 357mn shares offered on the open market. The privatisation of Saipa is progressing steadily and is being handled by the National Investment Company of Iran.
The largest galvanised steel plant in the Middle East has opened in the province of Chahar Mahal Bakhtiary. The plant is one of the only ones in the region and is capable of meeting up to 80% of the Iranian auto industry's demand for galvanised steel products. The plant will have an annual capacity of 400,000 tonnes and will directly employ 400 workers, with 4,000 more new jobs being available indirectly. The firm's major shareholders include auto firms Saipa and IKCO. The plant's production will be geared for the auto sector, but will also potentially export some of its products. Over US$190mn was invested in the plant.
The Iranian government has contacted the Turkish automaker Tofas in order to examine the possibilities for joint production of a new car model called the D8. The car is named in honour of eight rapidly rising economic powers, including Iran and Turkey. The firm apparently needs US$2mn to begin production of the vehicle, but analysts believe that IKCO seeks to secure Tofas' support to rescue itself from financial difficulties. Despite massive state aid and protection, the firm still manages to produce cars with a very small profit margin. The poor state of production facilities combined with the use of the company as a tool of state policy results in IKCO being a continuous drain on state finances. Recently the situation has become so grave that the firm has unpaid salaries and is having trouble repaying debts. Tofas has agreed to send a negotiating team to Iran to discuss the proposition, but has not commented further.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Iran Auto Sector SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Political SWOT Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Economic SWOT Analysis ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Business Environment SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................... 10
Regional Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 11
Change Ahead For The GCC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Trouble In South Africa And Turkey, Uncertainty In Iran ................................................................................................................................... 13
Impact On Production ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Middle East And Africa Business Environment Ratings........................................................................................................................... 17
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 18
Production And Sales .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Production ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Sales ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18
Trade .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
Table: Trade ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .............................................................................................................. 22
Table: Iran – Economic Activity, 2007-2015 ...................................................................................................................................................... 25
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 26
Financial Issues .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 26
New Fuel Technologies ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Quality Control ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Trade Sanctions And The Iranian Car Industry .................................................................................................................................................. 29
Privatisation ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Industry Developments ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
IKCO’s Foreign Production ............................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Samand’s Overseas Reach ....................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Commercial Vehicles .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Government Policy ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Foreign Investment ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Suppliers ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
Regulation........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................................... 46
Regional Case Study: Nissan Motor ................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Production .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: Nissan MEA Production Facilities .......................................................................................................................................................... 48
Sales ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Nissan MEA Distributors ......................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 51
Iran Khodro Company (IKCO) ................................................................................................................................................................................ 51
Saipa Diesel ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 53
Societe Annonyme Iranienne de Production Automobile (Saipa) .............................................................................................................................. 54
Country Snapshot: Iran Demographic Data ................................................................................................ 55
Section 1: Population ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 55
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 56
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ...................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 56
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ...................................................................................................................................................... 57
Table: Employment Indicators, 1996-2005 ......................................................................................................................................................... 57
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ............................................................................................................................................... 57
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 ................................................................................................................................ 58
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 59
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model ......................................................................................................................................................... 59
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60




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