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Indonesia Power Report Q1 2011


Indonesia Power Report Q1 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Aug 1, 2011
Quick Overview
The new Indonesia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.13% of AsiaPacific regional power generation by 2015. Owing to system inefficiencies and wastage, the countrystruggles to provide adequate generation for its needs. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumptionfor 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.6% over the previous year. We areforecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,786TWh by 2015, representing growth of 26.7% in 2010-2015.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation.Indonesia’s thermal generation in 2010 is estimated at 147TWh, or 2.39% of the regional total. By 2015,the country is expected to account for 2.55% of the region’s thermal generation.
Oil is the dominant fuel in Indonesia, accounting for an estimated 45.9% of primary energy demand(PED) in 2010, followed by coal at 25.1%, gas at 25.0% and hydro at 2.3%. Regional energy demand isforecast to reach 5,496mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.6% growth from theestimated 2010 level. Indonesia’s estimated 2010 market share of 3.14% is set to fall to 3.09% by 2015.Indonesia is moving ahead slowly with controversial plans to build its first nuclear power plant, whichcould be operational by 2017.
In BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, Indonesia is now ranked equal seventh,alongside Pakistan and Thailand. This reflects its low level of energy import dependence and its healthypower consumption growth prospects. However, several country risk factors offset the industry strength,and the country may struggle to keep up with Pakistan over the longer term. The Philippines, just onepoint below, also poses a threat over the medium term.
BMI is now forecasting Indonesian real GDP growth averaging 6.08% per annum between 2010 and2015, with a 2011 assumption of 5.90%. Population is expected to expand from 233mn to over 248mnover the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 88%and 24% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated141.7Wh in 2010 to 187.2TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and systemlosses, we see a possible shortfall of 2TWh in 2015, assuming 5.4% annual average growth in electricitygeneration during 2010-2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Indonesian electricity generation of 67.0%,which is above average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 28.4% in the 2015-2020 period, downfrom 30.1% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to rise from 23.4% in 2010-2015 to 24.6%, representing53.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 31% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is a majorelement of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 70% between 2010 and2020. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Indonesia Power Business Environment SWOT .................................................................................................................................................... 7
Indonesia Political SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Indonesia Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Industry Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 10
Global ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015 ................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Asia Pacific Region ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................................. 12
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) ................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ............................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................. 17
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 18
Primary Energy Demand .................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Power Generation ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Power Consumption ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 20
Regulation And Competition ............................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 22
Power Transmission ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Business Environment ................................................................................................................................. 23
Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................................. 23
Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................... 23
Indonesia’s Power Rating ................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 24
Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Legal Framework................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Infrastructure ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Labour Force ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Foreign Investment Policy .................................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Tax Regime ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Security Risk ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 32
Indonesia’s Power Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................. 32
Generation .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Gas-Fired ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Oil-Fired ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Coal-Fired .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Nuclear Energy ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Hydro-Electric .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Renewable Energy .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Power Costs ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 37
Transmission ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Indonesia’s Power Sector, 2008-2015 ..................................................................................................................................................... 39
Table: Indonesia’s Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 ....................................................................................................................................... 40
Table: Indonesia’s Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 ............................................................................................................................... 41
Table: Indonesia’s Power Costs, 2008-2015 ...................................................................................................................................................... 41
Assumptions And Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................................................................................... 42
Long-Term Power Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Indonesia – Economic Activity................................................................................................................................................................. 44
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ......................................................................................................... 45
Global Snapshot.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020 ................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Regional Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 45
Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................ 46
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 47
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 48
Table: Asia Pacific Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ..................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................... 50
Indonesia Country Overview .............................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 52
Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) ...................................................................................................................................................................... 53
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 55
Power Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56




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