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India Power Report Q1 2011


India Power Report Q1 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Aug 1, 2011
Quick Overview
BMI’s latest India Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 12.20% of Asia Pacificregional power generation by 2015, with a potential supply shortfall after system losses. BMI’s AsiaPacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of4.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,786TWh by 2015,representing growth of 26.7% in 2010-2015.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4%growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely toenvironmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. India’sthermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 737TWh, or 11.99% of the regional total. By2015, India is expected to account for 11.74% of regional thermal generation.
For India, coal is the dominant fuel, in 2010 accounting for an estimated 50.8% of primary energydemand (PED), followed by oil at 31.0%, gas at 10.0% and hydro-power at 6.3%. Regional energydemand is forecast to reach 5,496mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.6% growthfrom the estimated 2010 level. India’s estimated 2010 market share of 11.29% is set to rise to 11.84% by2015. The country’s estimated 24TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 65TWh by 2015,with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from 4.42% to 8.31% over the period.
India is ranked equal fourth alongside Vietnam in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings,thanks to its vast market size and excellent growth prospects. The gap between India and China (in thirdplace) is six points. While China is expected eventually to pull away and challenge Australia at the top ofthe table, India may be able to catch Japan (second place) during the next several quarters. Country riskfactors offset some of the industry’s strength, but the country seems destined over the longer term toshadow China near the top of the table.
BMI is now forecasting Indian real GDP growth averaging 8.05% per annum between 2010 and 2015,with the 2011 assumption being 8.10%. The population is expected to expand from 1.17bn to 1.25bn overthe period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 123% and36% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 684TWhin 2010 to 920TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and system losses, wesee a possible shortfall of 20TWh in 2015 (assuming 5.4% average annual growth in electricitygeneration in 2010-2015).
Between 2010 and 2020 we are forecasting an increase in Indian electricity generation of 65.2%, which isabove the average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 26.4% in the 2015-2020 period, down from30.7% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to rise from 32.2% in 2010-2015 to 30.1%, representing 71.9%for the entire forecast period. An increase of 69% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is a key elementof generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 45% between 2010 and 2020, withnuclear consumption up by 338%. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found at theend of this report.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
India Power Business Environment SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................... 7
India Political SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
India Economic SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Industry Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 10
Global ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015 ................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Asia Pacific Region ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................................. 12
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) ................................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ............................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................. 17
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 18
Primary Energy Demand .................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Power Generation ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Power Consumption ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 21
Regulation And Competition ............................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 23
Power Transmission ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Business Environment ................................................................................................................................. 25
Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................................. 25
Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................... 25
India’s Power Rating .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 26
Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Legal Framework................................................................................................................................................................................................ 27
Infrastructure ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Labour Force ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Foreign Investment Policy .................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Tax Regime ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Security Risk ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 35
India Power Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Generation .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Gas-Fired ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Oil-Fired ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Coal-Fired .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Nuclear Energy ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Hydro-Electric .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Renewable Energy .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Power Costs ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 43
Transmission ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Table: India’s Power Sector, 2008-2015 ............................................................................................................................................................ 45
Table: India’s Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 .............................................................................................................................................. 46
Table: India’s Non-Thermal Power, 2008-2015 ................................................................................................................................................. 47
Table: India’s Power Costs, 2008-2015.............................................................................................................................................................. 47
Assumptions And Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................................................................................... 48
Long-Term Power Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................. 48
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Table: India - Economic Activity; 2006-2015 ..................................................................................................................................................... 50
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ......................................................................................................... 51
Global Snapshot.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020 ................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Regional Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 51
Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................ 52
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 53
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 54
Table: Asia Pacific Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ..................................................................................................................... 55
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................... 56
India Country Overview ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................. 56
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 58
Power Grid ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
National Thermal Power Corporation ................................................................................................................................................................ 60
National Hydro-Electric Power Corporation...................................................................................................................................................... 60
Nuclear Power Corporation Of India ................................................................................................................................................................. 61
Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................................... 62
NTPC .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 62
NHPC ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 66
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 68
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 68
Power Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 69
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 69




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