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Greece Autos Report Q4 2012

Greece Autos Report Q4 2012

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Additional Information

Price	$1,175.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Oct 10, 2012

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Quick Overview

With Greece in its fifth year of depression, unemployment soaring to 23.1% (as of May), and vehicle
ownership costs increasing, BMI sees little scope for any rebound in new vehicle sales in the country. A
cumulative 41% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease in new car sales during H112 has prompted us to revise
down our forecast for passenger car sales in 2012. We now expect a 40% contraction (from a previous
forecast for a 23.8% contraction).
The ongoing economic malaise and weak consumer sentiment has also prompted a change in our longerterm
forecasts; we now forecast passenger car sales to decline 64% over the 2011-2016 period.
With our Greece Country Risk team still forecasting a 2.7% y-o-y contraction in real GDP in 2013, we do
not expect commercial vehicle sales growth to return to positive territory during 2013. In fact, our core
scenario for the segment envisages a continued contraction in annual commercial vehicle sales throughout
the forecast period, although the pace of decline is likely to slow down. By 2016, we expect the Greek
new commercial vehicles market to stand at 1,540 units – down almost 94% compared with the peak
levels seen in 2007.
We believe it is possible for the sector to recover, and vehicle consumption could rise at a higher rate if
the government repealed some regulations on the industry. For instance, the road tax was increased from
9% in 2011 to 12% in 2012. Easing taxes and other restrictions would bring down motoring costs and
help to spur growth in vehicle demand, although chances of such a change are slim, in our view. Any
upside risk to our forecast scenario would therefore be a result of favourable base effects.
A highly complicated regulatory environment, lacklustre retail performance and a lack of domestic auto
manufacturing mean that Greece continues to be a significant underperformer in Europe. Placed at the
bottom in BMI’s Risk/Reward Ratings for the auto industry in Europe, Greece not only suffers from poor
scores in the auto market, but also in terms of its country risk score. In view of the scale and number of
issues confronting the country, we see little hope for any improvement in its ranking in the region.

Table of Contents

SWOT Analysis .............................................................................................................................7
Greece Auto SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Greece Political SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Greece Economic SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Greece Business Environment SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Global Overview...........................................................................................................................9
Table: Passenger Car Sales H112 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings ...................................................................................................14
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings ............................................................................................................... 14
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe ............................................................................................................................ 19
Regional Overview......................................................................................................................21
Investments In Emerging Europe......................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Macroeconomic Forecast...........................................................................................................28
Table: Economic Activity ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Industry Forecast Scenario........................................................................................................32
Table: Greece Auto Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts .................................................................................................................................. 34
Table: Revised Taxes On Greece Vehicle Purchases, 2010 ................................................................................................................................... 36
Passenger Cars...........................................................................................................................37
Table: Greece Passenger Car Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts ........................................................................................................................ 37
Table: Top 10 Players In Greece’s Passenger Car Segment, 2010-2011................................................................................................................ 38
Commercial Vehicles..................................................................................................................39
Table: Greece Commercial Vehicle Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts ............................................................................................................ 39
Table: Top 10 Players In Greece’s Light Commercial Vehicle Segment, 2010-2011 .............................................................................................. 40
Motorcycles................................................................................................................................41
Table: Greece Motorcycle Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts ......................................................................................................................... 41
Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................44
Fiat Profits Continue To Tumble ............................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................46
Toyota Hellas ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Greece Autos Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Country Snapshot.......................................................................................................................47
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ............................................................................................................................... 48
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ...................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Greece's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ............................................................................................................................................. 50
Table: Greece's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ................................................................................................................................... 50
BMI Methodology.......................................................................................................................51
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model ......................................................................................................................................................... 51
Sources ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 52