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Germany Agribusiness Report Q1 2011


Germany Agribusiness Report Q1 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Aug 1, 2011
Quick Overview
BMI View: The growing popularity of biofuels and the regulations designed to promote their use areliterally changing the landscape of German grain production. With draft legislation allowing the sale ofE10 in German gas stations gaining Bundesrat approval, bioethanol use in Germany can only increase.This will boost production of wheat and corn, though barley is likely to lose popularity. We areforecasting production of barley to fall 8.6% over our five-year forecast period to 2015.
Key ViewsWheat production n 2010/11 to fall to 23.2mn tonnes, down 7.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) as a result ofdamage by persistent rains. Barley to come in at 10.3mn tonnes, down 15.9% y-o-y. Corn to fall to 3.7mntonnes, down 18.5%.
Low milk prices prevalent in 2009 and a quota increase of 1% forced some industry exits, resulting inreduced output. In 2010 we estimate production rose 1.4% y-o-y to reach 27.8mn tonnes. In 2011,production is likely to rise marginally to 27.9mn tonnes.We expect pork production in 2011 to rise a very healthy 5.2% to 5.63mn tonnes. Output growth tomaintain a strong upward trajectory and expand by 22.0% to 2015, consolidating Germany's place as theEU's top pork producer, accounting for around 20% of the entire EU pork market.
In 2011, sky-high sugar prices are likely to result in a decrease in consumption. We are forecastingconsumption to come in at 3.11mn tonnes, down 2.2% y-o-y. Over our five-year forecast period from2010, sugar consumption is predicted to decline by just over 5% to 3.02mn tonnes in 2015.
Industry developmentsAlthough an attempt to introduce E10 bioethanol fuel to gas stations in 2008 failed following protestersfrom car importers, this time the government looks likely to succeed. In November, the GermanBundesrat approved draft legislation allowing E10 to be sold from January 1 2011.
Germany is leading the way with meat origin labelling and has been promoting voluntary use of D/D/Dlabels (born/raised/slaughtered). What has until now been a voluntary scheme looks likely to soonbecome EU law. In early December 2010, EU health ministers voted in favour of extending compulsorylabelling of agricultural produce to cover lamb, pork and poultry. The move should help to protectGerman products from cheaper imports from the likes of Eastern Europe, Thailand and Brazil.The European Commission announced proposals on dairy industry reform in December 2011 Theyinclude improving contractual relations between producers and processors and allowing farmers tonegotiate with processors collectively. We expect these proposals to support production when they areimplemented and we are watching developments closely.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Germany Agriculture SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Germany Political SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Germany Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Germany Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Industry Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................................................. 9
Germany Grains Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
GERMANY Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 10
GERMANY Corn Production, Consumption & Trade ......................................................................................................................................... 10
GERMANY Barley Production, Consumption & Trade ...................................................................................................................................... 10
GERMANY Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 12
GERMANY Corn Production, Consumption & Trade ......................................................................................................................................... 12
GERMANY Barley Production, Consumption & Trade ...................................................................................................................................... 12
Germany Livestock Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
GERMANY Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade ..................................................................................................................................... 15
GERMANY Pork Production, Consumption & Trade ......................................................................................................................................... 15
GERMANY Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade ............................................................................................................................... 16
GERMANY Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade ..................................................................................................................................... 20
GERMANY Pork Production, Consumption & Trade ......................................................................................................................................... 20
GERMANY Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade ............................................................................................................................... 20
Germany Dairy Outlook - Q1 2011 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 22
GERMANY Milk Production, Consumption & Trade .......................................................................................................................................... 23
GERMANY Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 23
GERMANY Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade ..................................................................................................................................... 23
GERMANY Milk Production, Consumption & Trade .......................................................................................................................................... 27
GERMANY Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ....................................................................................................................................... 27
GERMANY Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade ..................................................................................................................................... 27
Germany Cocoa Outlook ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
GERMANY Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade....................................................................................................................................... 29
GERMANY Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade....................................................................................................................................... 29
Germany Sugar Outlook .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
GERMANY Sugar Production & Consumption ................................................................................................................................................... 30
GERMANY Sugar Production & Consumption ................................................................................................................................................... 31
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 33
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders ....................................................................................................................................... 33
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers ............................................................................................................................................................................ 34
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers........................................................................................................................................................... 35
Commodity Price Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 36
Monthly Softs Update ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Cocoa.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Table: Cocoa ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Coffee.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Table: Coffee ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Milk ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Milk ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Sugar .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 39
Table: Sugar ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Grains Update ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Corn .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Table: Corn ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
Rice ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table: Rice .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Soybean .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
Table: Soybean ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Wheat .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43
Table: Wheat....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis ............................................................................................................ 44
Industry Forecast Scenario ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Consumer Outlook .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
Food......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Total Food Consumption .................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Table: Food Consumption .................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Confectionery ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 49
Mass Grocery Retail ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 50
Table: Germany MGR Sector - Sales Value by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts ....................................................................................... 51
Trade .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 52
Macroeconomic Forecast ................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Germany – Economic Activity ............................................................................................................................................................................. 54
Industry Trends Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 55
Arla's International Ambitions Prompt Merger Talks With Germany's Hansa-Milch .......................................................................................... 55
German Consumer Spending Likely To Be Constrained By Subdued Economic Outlook .................................................................................... 56
Global Food & Drink View ............................................................................................................................. 58
Food & Drink Roundup Q410: Core Views ........................................................................................................................................................ 58
Short-Term Views ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Long-Term Views ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 62
BMI Food & Drink Core Views .......................................................................................................................................................................... 63
BMI Forecast Modelling ................................................................................................................................ 64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 64




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