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Czech Republic Power Report Q3 2011

Czech Republic Power Report Q3 2011

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Additional Information

Price	$530.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Jan 7, 2011

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Quick Overview

The new Czech Republic Power Report from BMI forecasts that Czech power consumption will rise from
61.7 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2010 to 71.8TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing average
annual growth of 1.52% in 2011-2020. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a surplus
supply rising from the estimated 17.3TWh level seen in 2010 to 24.8TWh by 2020, assuming 2.0%
average annual growth in power generation during the period.
Czech power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 79.0TWh, having recovered somewhat from the
depressed 2009 level of 77.0TWh. BMI is forecasting an average 1.7% annual increase to 85.8TWh
between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to stagnate during
the period to 2015, but growth looks set to resume later in the decade.
We expect gas-fired power generation to climb 4.4% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with an average
annual growth rate of 4.3% forecast to 2020. Gas-fired generation should therefore reach 3.2TWh by
2015 and almost 4.0TWh by 2020. The share of total Czech power generation should therefore increase
from 3.3% to 4.1% by the end of the forecast period. Coal-fired generation will have accounted for 57.1%
of the country’s total generation in 2010, according to BMI estimates. We expect the fuel’s market share
to be 51.9% by 2015, firing a projected 44.5TWh. By 2020, coal’s share of generation is forecast at
47.7%, representing 46.0TWh.
Nuclear power generation is one of the key growth areas for the Czech electricity sector. Expansion of
existing capacity and the construction of new plants should take generation from an estimated 26.4TWh
in 2010 to at least 31.6TWh by 2015, with the nuclear share of generation rising to 36.8%. Nuclear
should, by 2020, contribute 39.9% to total power generation. Our forecasts suggest non-hydro renewables
will account for 3.81% of electricity generation by 2015, climbing further to 4.57% by 2020. Biomass and
solar are expected to be the two main contributors to this trend, together representing more than 3.8% of
the power market by 2020.
In BMI’s Business Environment Ratings, the Czech Republic ranks last behind Ukraine out of the nine
CEE states as a result of its limited market size, modest growth prospects, moderate progress towards the
use of renewables, and underwhelming privatisation trend. Country risk factors offset some of the
industry weakness.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Czech Republic Power SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Global Industry Overview ............................................................................................................................... 7
Table: Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .......................................................................................................................... 7
Table: Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ....................................................................................................................... 8
Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) .......................................................................................... 9
Regional Industry Overview .......................................................................................................................... 11
Central/Eastern Europe ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Table: Total Generation Data (TWh) .................................................................................................................................................................. 12
Table: Total Consumption Data (Twh) ............................................................................................................................................................... 12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data (Mw) ............................................................................................................................................ 14
Czech Republic Market Overview ................................................................................................................. 15
Regulation And Competition ............................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 16
Power Transmission ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Business Environment ................................................................................................................................. 18
Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings ........................................................................................................ 18
Czech Power Rating............................................................................................................................................................................................ 19
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19
Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 20
Table: Czech Republic Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .............................................................................................. 20
Table: Czech Republic Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................ 23
Table: Czech Republic Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ..................................... 26
Table: Czech Republic Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 20012-2020 (TWh) ................................ 26
Table: Czech Republic Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................ 26
Table: Czech Republic Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .............................................................................................................. 26
Table: Czech Republic Total Net Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ..................................................................................... 27
Table: Czech Republic Total Net Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .................................................................................. 27
Table: Czech Republic Consumption by Energy Sector Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) ......................................................................... 27
Table: Czech Republic Consumption by Energy Sector Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ...................................................................... 28
Table: Czech Republic Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (MW) ........................................................................ 29
Table: Czech Republic Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2020 (MW) ...................................................................... 30
Czech Republic Power Outlook .......................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Generation .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Gas-Fired ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Oil-Fired ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33
Coal-Fired .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Nuclear Energy ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Hydro-Electric .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Renewable Energy .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Transmission ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................................................................................... 36
Competitive Landscape ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
?EZ ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
?EPS .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
PRE ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
E.ON ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................................... 40
?EZ ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Glossary Of Terms ........................................................................................................................................ 45
Glossary Of Terms .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 46
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 46
Power Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47