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Czech Republic Autos Report Q1 2013

Czech Republic Autos Report Q1 2013

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Additional Information

Price	$1,175.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Sep 1, 2013

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Quick Overview

We believe that the weak Czech consumer story, combined with the slowdown in credit growth, will
result in relatively lacklustre growth in passenger car sales over the remainder of 2012, in line with our
forecast. In terms of sales, passenger car sales in 10M12 increased 3.3% y-o-y, to 147,022 units. This
represents something of a slowdown from the 5.0% y-o-y growth seen over the first seven months of the
year. BMI, however, has long maintained that passenger car sales will not be able to maintain the strong
rate of growth observed earlier in the year due to weak macroeconomic factors. We stand by our forecast
for 3.0% growth in this segment in 2012.
Our 2012 Czech production forecast for 1% growth also marks a notable slowdown in growth from an
11.4% increase in 2011, and a 10.5% increase in 2010. We have previously cautioned that vehicle and
equipment production capacity in Czech Republic could slow down and potentially decrease in the face of
an increasingly uncompetitive business environment and ongoing economic malaise in Europe. Domestic
production is export-oriented, with nine out of every 10 cars produced in the Czech Republic sold abroad.
Indeed, we have long maintained that Czech auto production is orientated around export to Germany. Our
previously bullish view on production growth was predicated on this sales outlook. More recently,
however, we have become more bearish on passenger car sales in Germany, downgrading our 2012 sales
forecast to a 1% decline.
There are growth areas in the Czech passenger car segment, however. Czech power company CEZ has
recently opened a charging station for electric vehicles (EVs) in the capital city Prague. It is its 25th such
unit in the country, and BMI believes that increasing the availability of a charging infrastructure will
increase the uptake of EV technology over the longer term.
The EV market in the Czech Republic remains very small, with an estimated 200 EV in use. Many of
these are fleet vehicles. CEZ hopes to open 50 EV charging stations in the country by 2013. BMI believes
that a substantial barrier to greater EV uptake (in the Czech Republic, but also more broadly across many
markets) is the current paucity of a strong charging infrastructure. We believe that the increasing
availability of such stations will increase the uptake of EVs across the country.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 6
Czech Republic Autos Industry SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Czech Republic Political SWOT Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................. 7
Czech Republic Economic SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................ 7
Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT Analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 8
Global Overview ............................................................................................................................................... 9
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform .................................................................................................................................................. 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Regional Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 14
Increasingly Bearish On Weak Consumer Growth, But Some Bright Spots Remain ................................................................................................. 14
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .............................................................................................................. 22
Table: Czech Republic Economic Activity, 2011-2016 ........................................................................................................................................ 24
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 25
Table: Czech Autos Production, 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................................................................ 25
Table: Czech Autos Sales, 2010-2017 .................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Trade ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 27
Table: Czech Autos Trade, 2009-2016 ................................................................................................................................................................. 27
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................. 29
Market Overview ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars 2011 .................................................................................................................... 30
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars Jan-Oct ............................................................................................................... 32
Passenger Cars .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Commercial Vehicles ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - New Light CVs 2011 ..................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Trucks 2011 ....................................................................................................................................... 35
Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Buses 2011 ......................................................................................................................................... 35
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - New Light CVs Jan-Oct ................................................................................................................ 36
Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Trucks Jan-Oct .................................................................................................................................. 37
Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Buses Jan-Oct .................................................................................................................................... 37
Suppliers .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Alternative Fuel ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Company Monitor ........................................................................................................................................... 41
Ford's Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Company Profiles ........................................................................................................................................... 43
Peugeot ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 43
Škoda Auto ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Hyundai ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Demographic Outlook .................................................................................................................................... 47
Table: The Czech Republic's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ......................................................................................................... 48
Table: The Czech Republic's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ................................................................................................ 49
Table: The Czech Republic's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ........................................................................................................................ 50
Table: The Czech Republic's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .............................................................................................................. 50
BMI Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 51
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .......................................................................................................................................................... 51
Automobile Industry ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 51
Sources ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 52