Sign in to our library of over $5 million worth of researchclose

Two Quick Steps

* Required Fields

Click Your Industry



Registered Customers

If you have an account with us, please log in.

* Required Fields



Subscribe today
Sign in to our library of over $5 million worth of researchclose

Two Quick Steps

* Required Fields

Click Your Industry



Registered Customers

If you have an account with us, please log in.

* Required Fields



Subscribe today

We deliver Mobile Wallet Market Research and SWOT Analysis from Alternative Energy to Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Market Research Reports to Digital Media.

Skip to Main Content »

Search Site
Researchers Currently Online:991

China Power Report Q1 2011


China Power Report Q1 2011

Double click on above image to view full picture

Zoom Out
Zoom In
Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Aug 1, 2011
Quick Overview
The new China Power Report from BMI forecasts that by 2015 the country will account for 53.84% of Asia Pacific regional power generation and could be faced with a growing theoretical supply shortfall after system losses if infrastructure investment doesn’t rise rapidly. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,724 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 9,786TWh by 2015, representing growth of 26.7% in 2010-2015.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,149TWh, accounting for 79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 7,589TWh, implying 23.4% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.5%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. China’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 3,234TWh, or 52.59% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 56.31% of thermal generation.
Coal will have been the dominant fuel for China in 2010, accounting for an estimated 70.6% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 18.6%, gas at 3.8%, hydro at 6.2% and nuclear with a 0.7% market share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,496mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. China’s estimated 2010 market share of 53.20% is set to rise to 55.81% by 2015. China’s estimated 75TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 170TWh by 2015, with its share of the regional nuclear market rising from 13.81% to 21.74% over the period.
China is now ranked third, behind only Japan and Australia, in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its vast market size and excellent growth prospects. It has this quarter fallen back behind Japan but could ultimately challenge it and Australia, which is currently five points ahead. China has a comfortable six-point lead over its nearest genuine rival, Vietnam. Country risk factors offset some of the industry’s strength, but China seems destined to remain close to the head of the league table for the foreseeable future.
BMI is now forecasting Chinese real GDP growth averaging 7.92% per annum between 2010 and 2015, with the 2011 estimate being an increase of 7.50%. Population is expected to expand from 1.34bn to 1.38bn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase 74% and 34% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 3,284TWh in 2010 to 4,510TWh by the end of the forecast period. After power industry usage and system losses, we see a possible shortfall of 73TWh by 2015, assuming 6.0% average annual growth in electricity output during 2010-2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a 75.2% increase in Chinese electricity generation, which is one of the highest projected rates for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to growth of 31.3% in the 2015-2020 period, down from 33.4% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to ease from 32.2% in 2010-2015 to 26.8%, representing 67.5% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 68% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 72% between 2010 and 2020, with nuclear consumption expected to increase by 287%. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
China Power Business Environment SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................... 6
China Political SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
China Economic SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Industry Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 9
Global ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Asia Pacific Region ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 12
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) ................................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe) ............................................................................................................................... 15
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh) ................................................................................................................. 16
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 17
Primary Energy Demand .................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Power Generation ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Power Consumption ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 18
Regulation And Competition ............................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 20
Power Transmission ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Business Environment ................................................................................................................................. 22
Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................................. 22
Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................... 22
China’s Power Rating ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 23
Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Legal Framework................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Infrastructure ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Labour Force ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Foreign Investment Policy .................................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Tax Regime ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Security Risk ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 32
China’s Power Outlook....................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Generation .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Gas-Fired ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Oil-Fired ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33
Coal-Fired .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Nuclear Energy ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Hydro-Electric .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Renewable Energy .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Power Costs ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 41
Transmission ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Table: China’s Power Sector, 2008-2015 ........................................................................................................................................................... 44
Table: China’s Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 ............................................................................................................................................. 45
Table: China’s Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 ..................................................................................................................................... 46
Table: China’s Power Sector Costs, 2008-2015 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) ............................................................................................. 46
Assumptions And Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Long-Term Power Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Table: China - Economic Activity ....................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ......................................................................................................... 50
Global Snapshot.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 50
Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020 ................................................................................................................................................................... 50
Regional Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 50
Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................ 51
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe) ..................................................................................................................... 52
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) .................................................................................................................... 53
Table: Asia Pacific Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ..................................................................................................................... 54
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh) ............................................................................................................................... 55
China Country Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................. 55
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 57
Huaneng Power International ............................................................................................................................................................................ 57
China Huaneng Group ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 57
China Datang Group .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
China Huadian Corporation ............................................................................................................................................................................... 58
China Guodian Corporation ............................................................................................................................................................................... 59
China Power Investment Corporation ................................................................................................................................................................ 59
China Southern Power Grid ............................................................................................................................................................................... 59
State Grid Corporation ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................................... 61
Huaneng Power International (HPI) .................................................................................................................................................................. 61
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 65
Power Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 66
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 66




...