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Caribbean Tourism Report Q2 2011


Caribbean Tourism Report Q2 2011

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Additional Information
Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Apr 8, 2011
Quick Overview
Sluggish Industry Growth In 2010 Most Caribbean countries experienced a growth in tourist arrivals in 2010, although the majority posted figures well below pre-2008 trends. Of 28 countries reporting arrivals data, 20 experienced arrivals growth, with St Eustatius (formerly part of the Netherlands Antilles) posted the highest growth, of 11.6% year-on-year (y-o-y). Other countries experiencing strong growth were Anguilla (10.7%), the British Virgin Islands (8.6%), Martinique (7.9%) and St Lucia (9.9%).
However, other countries performed less well, with Montserrat experiencing the greatest decline in arrivals, of 7.4%. Other countries posting declines were Antigua and Barbuda (2.3%), Grenada (6.4%), Curacao (7.3%) and St Vincent and the Grenadines (3.6%). For those countries still experiencing falling tourist arrivals, this is particularly concerning, as they have now experienced declines for three consecutive years. They will hope to return to growth in 2011, with the improving growth trend in other countries suggesting that the region is slowly returning to a more positive operating environment.
Focus On Anguilla Anguilla is a small territory located in the northernmost point of the Lesser Antilles, close to the UK and US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Antigua and Barbuda. The islands that form Anguilla are a highly popular tourist destination, with Anguilla registering arrivals growth of 10.7% y-o-y in 2010, one of the highest in the Caribbean. The island looks set to continue its positive performance in 2011, particularly as the rest of the region returns to stronger growth. While tourism will dip during the hurricane season in June to November, growth is likely to remain strong for the rest of the year.
Caribbean Cruise Sector Stagnates In 2010 The Caribbean cruise sector has traditionally been one of the strongest in the tourism industry. However, the industry has struggled as a result of the general tourist downturn in the region, with the cruise industry being hit particularly hard because of its nature as a high-end, luxury sector. The sector continued to suffer in 2010, indicating that it will lag recovery in other parts of the tourism industry. Many countries experienced declines in cruise arrivals, reflecting reductions in itineraries and routes by cruise ship companies. In particular, the Dominican Republic experienced a decline of 29.2%, followed by Antigua and Barbuda (23.3%), St Vincent and the Grenadines (22.9%) and Trinidad and Tobago (14.2%). In a blow to the sector, major cruise operator Royal Caribbean International announced in March 2011 that it was reducing its presence in the Caribbean, transferring some of its ships to serve the European market instead.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Caribbean Tourism SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Caribbean Political SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Caribbean Economic SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Caribbean Business Environment SWOT .............................................................................................................................................................. 7
Industry Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................................................. 8
Arrivals And Accommodation .................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Table: Arrivals & Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 ........................................................................................................................................... 8
Expenditure ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Table: Tourist Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2007-2015 ................................................................................................................................ 8
Inbound Tourism ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9
Table: Tourist Stopover Arrivals, 2010 ................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Table: Tourism By Individual Island, 2007-2015 ('000, unless stated) ................................................................................................................ 10
Focus: Anguilla ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Market Overview – Travel .............................................................................................................................. 14
Commercial Airlines ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .......................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)........................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) ................................................................................................................. 19
Market Overview – Hospitality ...................................................................................................................... 21
Cruise Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 21
Table: Cruise Passenger Arrivals, 2009-2010 .................................................................................................................................................... 21
Accommodation ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Luxury Hotels .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 23
Global Assumptions, Q211........................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 24
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ...................................................................................................................... 25
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) ...................................................................................................................................... 25
Developed States .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 26
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) ................................................................................................................ 26
Emerging Markets ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 27
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .............................................................................................................. 28
Consensus Forecasts ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 29
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 ..................................................................................................................................................... 29
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 30
Air Jamaica ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 30
Royal Caribbean Cruises .................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Sol Meliá ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 34
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 34
Tourism Industry ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Caribbean Tourism Report Q2 2011
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 35




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