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Bahrain Autos Report Q1 2011

Bahrain Autos Report Q1 2011

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Additional Information

Price	$530.00
Publisher	Business Monitor International
Date of Report	Aug 1, 2011

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Quick Overview

The auto market in Bahrain is set to show sustained growth in sales over the coming five years. This is driven largely by continued economic expansion. The Bahraini market is largely saturated, but as residents grow in wealth it is hoped that new cars will be purchased more often. The economic future of Bahrain appears to be more secure today than it appeared even at the beginning of 2010. Standard and Poor's ratings service has reaffirmed its A/A-1 rating for the sovereign debt of Bahrain. This comes as the firm predicts that the price of oil in 2011 and 2012 will be around US$80 a barrel. This is very close to the nation's 'break-even' point, the price of oil which allows government expenditure to be balanced by oil and gas revenue. The ratings service has stated that it expects the nation's deficit in 2011 to stand at 1.7% and in 2012 at 1.2%.
Sales of certain luxury brands have grown in Bahrain. BMW reports that total sales for the firm in Bahrain grew by 4% to 319 units in H110. Whilst the growth is a positive sign for the firm, it is markedly lower than the 13% growth that it has experienced across the Middle Eastern market as a whole. The sales figures at Rolls-Royce, for example, were far better, with the firm's 10M10 sales in Bahrain up a staggering 138% year-on-year. The growth of luxury cars is an important sign for the Bahraini auto market. Luxury brands make up a larger proportion of purchases than normal in Gulf states, including Bahrain. The growth in the higher levels indicates that confidence is returning, particularly at the very highest market space which is occupied by Rolls-Royce.
Bahrain held the country's first auto show from December 1-4 2010. The organisers intend to hold the show once every two years, in and around the date of the country's independence day when Bahrain won its independence from Great Britain. The show will display a wide variety of cars, from economy models to top-of the range luxury brands. However, and this is important for the industry, it will also showcase a wide range of other services including car financing. It is hoped that the show will not only encourage purchases by allowing customers to examine a wide range of cars, but will also allow customers to secure financing from a wider than normal range of providers.
The government of Bahrain is seeking to increase its investment in infrastructure as part of its programme to diversify the nation's economy. Part of this involves large investment into the nation's road network. Currently the budget for 2010 is US$403.5mn. With this money the government intends to relieve congestion on the King Fahd Causeway, which links Bahrain with Saudi Arabia. The government also plans to open a new causeway to Qatar, which will link the two countries by road and by rail. The decision to include a rail link has delayed the opening of the causeway until 2015. Any development in the nation's road infrastructure may lead to an acceleration in the spread of car ownership, however if this infrastructure spending is coupled with extensive improvements in public transport, a lot of the need for private transport will have vanished in this rather small country. Bahrain's economy has bounced back from the global economic crisis. Growth is expected to improve dramatically in 2010, in this the most economically diverse country in the Gulf region. BMI expects new car sales to continue to grow at around 3% each year – a total of 15% growth over the five-year forecasting period of 2010-2015. While this is not as heady a growth rate as can be found in other countries, the saturated nature of the market combined with the relatively low national income limits opportunities for rapid growth. Despite this, the Bahraini market remains attractive as long as more general economic fears are resolved in the near future

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Bahrain Auto Industry SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Political SWOT Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Economic SWOT Analysis ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Business Environment SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Regional Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 10
Change Ahead For The GCC .............................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Trouble In South Africa And Turkey, Uncertainty In Iran ................................................................................................................................... 12
Impact On Production ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 13
Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Middle East And Africa Business Environment Ratings........................................................................................................................... 16
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 17
Table: Bahrain – Auto Industry Historical Data And Forecasts .......................................................................................................................... 17
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .............................................................................................................. 20
Table: Bahrain – Economic Activity ................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 24
Table: Bahrain Auto Sector – Key Players ......................................................................................................................................................... 32
Regional Developments ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Regulation........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................................... 37
Regional Case Study: Nissan Motor ................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Production .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Nissan MEA Production Facilities .......................................................................................................................................................... 39
Sales ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Table: Nissan MEA Distributors ......................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 42
Al Zayani Investments ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
National Motor ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Country Snapshot: Bahrain Demographic Data ......................................................................................... 44
Section 1: Population .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 44
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...................................................................................................................................................... 45
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ................................................................................................................................................................. 45
Table: Education ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 45
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................................................................................................................................. 46
Employment Indicators ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Consumer Expenditure, 1999-2004 (US$) .......................................................................................................................................................... 46
Average Annual Wages ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 47
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model ......................................................................................................................................................... 47
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48