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Australia Defence and Security Report Q1 2011


Australia Defence and Security Report Q1 2011

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Price $530.00
Meta Description No
Publisher Business Monitor International
Date of Report Aug 1, 2011
Quick Overview
Australia's relationship with China has become increasingly important in recent years, owing to China's emergence as Australia's biggest export destination, having overtaken Japan. Australia has traditionally been a very close ally of the US, but Canberra must increasingly tread a fine line between fostering closer economic cooperation with Beijing while guarding against China's rising military power. The Australian government has continued to boost its military capabilities, with the purchase of 12 new submarines as part of a US$44bn upgrade plan. Canberra has also made efforts to increase regional military cooperation – potentially as a hedge against China – by signing a security pact with Japan. In light of Australia's longstanding security ties with the US, some Chinese strategic planners may interpret three-way defence cooperation between Canberra, Tokyo and Washington as being aimed at curbing Beijing.
The slowdown in Australia's real GDP growth in Q310 is in line with our bearish view that weakening investment and private consumption growth will cause a drag in headline expansion going forward. Indeed, we are pencilling in economic growth of only 1.6% and 2.3% for 2011 and 2012 respectively, weaker than the forecast 2.8% expansion in 2010.
Australia's economic growth decelerated considerably in Q310, expanding by only 0.2% quarter-onquarter (q-o-q) (seasonally-adjusted), from a revised 1.1% registered in Q210. The recent slowdown in the country's real GDP expansion was in line with our view that the rise in borrowing costs, fall in consumer confidence, and weakening residential property sector will lead to lower headline growth going forward. With this in mind, we maintain our view that the Australian economy will expand by only 1.6% in 2011, before rebounding slightly to 2.3% in 2012. These figures are much lower than our projected 2.8% growth for Australia in 2010
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Australia Security SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Australia Defence SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Australia Political SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Australia Economic SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Australia Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Global Political Outlook .................................................................................................................................. 9
Global Hotspots .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Global Election Timetable, 2010 And 2011 ........................................................................................................................................................ 12
Latin America: More Of The Same ..................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Western Europe .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 18
Central Europe ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
South Eastern Europe ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Russia And The Former Soviet Union ................................................................................................................................................................. 21
Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges .................................................................................................................................................. 22
Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending ............................................................................................................................................. 24
Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China .................................................................................................................................................. 25
Wild Cards .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Global Security Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 29
South East Asia Security Overview .............................................................................................................. 35
Political Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 48
Domestic Politics ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 48
Long-Term Political Outlook .............................................................................................................................................................................. 49
Security Risk Ratings ................................................................................................................................... 52
BMI’s Security Ratings ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings .................................................................................................................................................... 52
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ............................................................................................................................... 53
Australia’s Security Risk Rating ......................................................................................................................................................................... 54
City Terrorism Rating ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index ............................................................................................................................................................. 55
Security Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 57
Internal Security Situation .................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
External Security Situation ................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Armed Forces And Government Spending ................................................................................................. 60
Armed Forces ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, ‘000 personnel) .................................................................................... 60
Defence Budget ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 62
International Deployments .................................................................................................................................................................................. 63
Weapons of Mass Destruction ............................................................................................................................................................................. 65
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 66
Industry Trends And Developments .................................................................................................................................................................... 66
Arms Trade Overview ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 68
Procurement Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................................................................. 69
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 71
Table: Australia’s Armed Forces 2000 - 2008 (personnel) ................................................................................................................................. 71
Table: Australia’s Defence Sector, 2008-2015 ................................................................................................................................................... 71
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .................................................................................................................................................................... 73
Table: Australia - Economic Activity, 2006-2015 ............................................................................................................................................... 75
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 76
Austal .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 76
BAE Systems Australia ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 78
Boeing Australia ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 80
Raytheon Australia ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 82
Thales Australia .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 84
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 86
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 86
Defence Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 86
City Terrorism Rating ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 87
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 89
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 90




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